Bualuang Securities General Co., Ltd The analysis dated (26 December 2023) stated that the profit margin of the Thai cattle trade is expected to increase in 2024, supported by the price of Thai cattle which is likely to rise. Thai live pig prices are estimated to have risen 16% from a 2023 low of 57 baht/kg (16-23 October 2023) to 66 baht/kg (6-8 December 2023). While the price of Thai live chicken also rose by 8% from 37.25 baht/kg (4-29 Oct 2023) to 40.25 baht/kg (7-8 Dec 66).
It is expected that Thai live pork prices will likely recover to 75-80 baht/kg, and Thai live chicken prices will return to 40-44 baht/kg in the first half of 2024.
There is a supporting factor from the upcoming holiday season. The effects of a severe El Niño phenomenon, which will lead to hotter than normal weather conditions. (Affecting the reduced supply of meat) Illegal pork smuggling is expected to decrease next year. In addition, the average Thai live pig price for 2024 is estimated at 80 baht/kg, an increase of 7% from the same period last year. The average price of Thai live chicken in 2024 will be 42.5 baht/kg, an increase of 4% from the same period last year. It is also estimated that overall raw material costs are likely to decline by about 10% next year.
toEl Niño phenomenon Analysts estimate this is “fairly strong” and will lead to hotter than normal summer weather in Thailand in the first half of 2024. Warmer than normal weather is expected to further damage meat supplies. This will be a factor in putting pressure on wild meat supplies during April and May. To be tighter than under normal conditions. It led to a rise in Thai cattle prices.
In addition, the average domestic corn price for 2024 is expected to be 10 baht/kg, down 17% from the same period last year. The average price of domestic soybean meal for 2024 was estimated at 20 baht/kg, down 11% from the same period last year from an average price of 22.40 baht/kg in 2023.
From the issues mentioned above, the analysts department chose Charon Pokvand Foods General Co., Ltd or CPF It is the first choice for investment in the agriculture and food sector. This is due to the expectation that operating results will return to net profit in 2024, supported by wild meat prices that are expected to rise in Thailand, China and Vietnam, in addition to animal feed costs that will rise. It will decrease. Profit sharing from associates (from HyLife, a profit sharing joint venture in Canada and loss share from CTI, a subsidiary in China) is expected to decrease. CP All Public Company Limited or CPALL which is expected to continue to grow strongly)
There are also secondary investment options in the agriculture and food sector, such as: Petagro General Company Limited or BTG, THAI FOODS GROUP PUBLIC CO., LTD or TFG And GFPT PUBLIC LIMITED or GFBT
However, forecasts for a recovery in core operating results in 2024 are expected to show that CPF will recover the most from a reversal in its 2 billion baht earnings estimates in 2024, followed by BTG from a reversal in its 1.96 billion baht earnings estimates. Baht in 2024 TFG expects earnings of 1.85 billion baht for 2024, an increase of 656% from the same period last year, while GFPT forecasts core earnings in 2024 at 1.5 billion baht, an increase of 19% from the same period last year. The previous year
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