Phillies will sign Trea Turner to an 11-year deal

Phillies and shortstop Tria Turner They agreed to a contract that would see him earn $300 million over 11 years with a complete no-trade clause.

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-rounders in the game since then. He has stolen at least 27 bases in every complete season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average has exceeded . 300. Although his power wasn’t quite as impressive earlier in his career, he’s continued to push that part of his game upward, hitting more than 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. The Ultimate Zone Rating doesn’t like his work on the glove, although defense saves and above-average Outs deem him a high-quality player in the short span of his career.

Turner arrived in free agency this winter as part of the so-called “Big Four,” which also consists of Carlos CorreaAnd the Xander Bogaerts And the Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to assist a team in all aspects of its game, MLBTR sign him for a healthy contract worth $268 million over eight years. This was the second highest expected security for short stop orders, after Korea’s expected $288 million. However, Correa is more than a year younger than Turner and this prediction was published over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted to have the highest average annual value at $33.5 million.

The actual contract that Turner agreed to would take a very different form than expected. His $300 million guarantee is just over the $288 million mark, but with the addition of three additional years. This means that Turner will turn 40 in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former national team teammate who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest ever guarantee for a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330 million. However, he was guaranteed that guarantee over an extended 13-year period, with an average annual value of just over $25 million per season which was well below other elite players who often reach their mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33 million by Max Scherzer I connected earlier today Justin Verlander. among the center players, Mike Trout He has the record at $36 million.) Turner followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritized guarantee over salary, with Turner’s deal running at just over $27 million a season. Turner will meet with Philadelphia hitting coach Kevin Long. Turner said recently ESPN’s Kelly McDaniel Anne Long, who was Washington’s coach from 2018 to 2021, has played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they’ve been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. signed Didi Gregory to take the job in 2020, and he did well enough in that shortened campaign to come back on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, this new decade went south too quickly, as Gregory finally finished 2021 with a .209/.270/.370 streak for wRC+69, indicating that it was 31% below the league average.

There was some speculation that the Phils would pursue a short stint last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at the time, including Correa, Corey SeegerAnd the Javier BaezAnd the Trevor’s story And the Marcus Semin. Eventually the club moved away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and expectation. Bryson Stott Knocking on the door of big companies. Gregory had another terrible season in 2022, and was released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but eventually found his footing in encouraging fashion. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 streak for hitting a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his last streak to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to be promoted for another title run in 2023 and have been heavily tied for the “Big Four” shortstop spots. After I turned down the option on Jean Segura, they had a hole at second base and seemed intent on getting one from the big shortstop as Stott kicked to the other side of the bag. Although they had some degree of interest in the four, he was mentioned Last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies made a splash that would have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the 2021 deadline, will now need to think about how to set their midfield for next year. They are It said Is open to the idea of ​​moving Gavin Locks from second base to shortstop and sitting out the “Big Four” this winter. Whether or not these foreshadowings prove true will be revealed in due course, but it doesn’t look like Correa, Bogarts or Swanson will have a hard time finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles, and Mariners have been publicly linked to shortstops in some way, with other clubs definitely in the mix as well. It’s possible that some of those teams were interested in Turner, though now they’ll have to move forward with one option off the plate. Since Turner turned down a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an additional draft pick next year, with that pick paid after the fourth round at the expense of the Dodgers who paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT pusher, would lose their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool drop by $1 million.

Although the Phils will have Turner and Stott at center, the rest of the field is somewhat in flux. Alec Boom And the Rhys Hoskins could remain at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the year, it has been speculated that Bohm could move to first place, taking Hoskins gained more time in the batter’s designated slot during Edmundo Sosa He takes over the hot corner. No matter how they line up on the field, Turner seems poised to add a quick element to a Philadelphia lineup that has skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some extent, make up for some of the lost production by not having Harper around the early part of the year, and hopefully Harper will join the club for the second half and postseason. 466 in 2022 for a WRC+ of 128, hit 21 home runs and stolen 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the club’s commitments far into the future. With both Harper and Turner signing such long deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, with both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will remain on the ledger through 2033. In the short term, however, a lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they look to capitalize while the competitive window is wide open. list resource Their 2023 payroll is estimated to be $206 million with a competitive tax credit number of $218 million. The club pushed CBT in 2022 and looks poised to do it again, as they are now only about $15 million short of the $233 million threshold for 2023. Since they are still looking to make supply staff upgrades, they will likely end up on the other side. off the line for the second year in a row. CBT features escalating penalties for recurring payments, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending on that line, with larger penalties if it goes over the $20 million above.

Not surprisingly, the Phils will be aggressive as they look to get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club already finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Still, those two clubs are poised to be strong again moving forward with Atlanta continuing to lock up all of their young stars to long stretches while the Mets spend heavily in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payment for the division today, as the Mets have already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66 million contract to replace Jacob DeGrum in their rotation. With several months left until spring training, the National League East is shaping up to be a great fight again in 2023.

ESPN’s Jeff Bassin I first mentioned that the two sides had been getting along for a while ESPN’s Kelly McDaniel I first reported the structure of the transaction details and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.