Ukraine sees Russian losses at Bakhmut as a prelude to the Spring Offensive

General Sersky said of the Russian forces around Bakhmut: “They are losing great forces and are becoming exhausted.” “Very soon, we will seize this opportunity,” he said, recalling how Ukrainian forces successfully recaptured occupied areas in the north and south of the country last year after Russian attacks reached their peak.

However, General Cirsky said that the offensive potential of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization that led the offensive around Bakhmut, had not yet been exhausted, and acknowledged the brutal conditions faced by the city’s defenders. He said, “Under the continuous fire of enemy artillery and aircraft, our soldiers at the front show outstanding resilience.”

Ukraine’s military and political leadership has been criticized at home as well as from Western military analysts who question the wisdom of Kiev’s decision to defend Bakhmut rather than withdraw from the small city. Among the critics are some commanders of units on the ground, who fear that Ukraine will cause too many casualties, undermining its ability to launch attacks against Russia’s invading forces in the coming months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the region on Wednesday also signaled Kiev’s determination to keep Bakhmut, awarding medals to front-line troops.

Russian forces, led by the Wagner Group, have been trying to seize Bakhmut since last July. After making little progress over months, they managed to advance north and south of the city early in the year, threatening to cut off their supply routes. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the eastern part of Bakhmut, and the river dividing the city now forms the front line.

Only one reliable road into the city, through the village of Ivanevsky, was still open for Ukraine to supply its troops and evacuate the wounded. Ukrainian forces carry out repairs to the destroyed road under Russian bombing.

Ukraine said as recently as January that Bakhmut, which had a pre-war population of 70,000, was not of strategic importance. But the large number of forces both sides poured into the battle created its own military importance.

Ukrainian commanders say that the battle for the city weakens some of the strongest Russian forces, including Wagner, and that Russian losses far outweigh those of Bakhmut’s defenders.

Meanwhile, Russia is looking for a symbolic victory by capturing the city after months of offensives in eastern Ukraine that have not made any significant gains otherwise. For Moscow, the battle is also an opportunity to inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian brigades that Kiev needs for its expected offensives.

Ukrainian soldiers in the Bakhmut region, as well as Western military analysts, say Russia continues to suffer greater losses, but the proportion of casualties has become less favorable for Ukraine in recent weeks, as Wagner-led forces have surrounded the city on three sides. The defenders were forced to engage in a bitter street-by-street battle.

In a video interview posted on his social media channels on Thursday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, said Ukraine was assembling large troop reserves ahead of its planned spring offensive. He predicted that the Kiev forces planned to surround Wagner’s forces at Bakhmut, cut the lines between the cities of Svatov and Krymina in the eastern Luhansk region to the north, and push south towards the Black Sea in the partially occupied Zaporizhia region.

Kiev believes that this spring and summer may be its best chance to recapture the territories occupied by Russia, as it may then become difficult to secure the same level of Western military and political aid—particularly from the United States, Kiev’s most important backer.

Some Republican lawmakers and presidential contenders are critical of the level of aid, and recent polls have shown declining support, particularly among Republican voters, for Ukraine’s arming and financing policy.

Some European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, such as Germany and France, are pessimistic about Ukraine’s ability to recover large swathes of occupied territory from Russian forces. Officials in Berlin and Paris privately believe the war is likely to end in the de facto partition of Ukraine, with Russia continuing to occupy parts of the country’s east and south.

Polls show that most Ukrainians are strongly opposed to giving up any of their national lands. Mr. Zelensky and his military commanders aim to show Ukraine’s Western backers that they can once again inflict defeats on Russia’s invading forces, using tanks, armored vehicles and other weaponry that the West is expected to deliver in the coming months.

Since March last year, when Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine reached its furthest territorial extent, the defenders of Ukraine have forced Russian forces to withdraw from large parts of the country’s north, northeast, and south.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision last fall to mobilize some 300,000 additional troops helped Moscow stabilize the front line over the winter.

This article was contributed by Ivan Gershkovitch in Moscow.

Write to Marcus Walker at [email protected]