PARIS (Reuters) – U.S. planemaker Boeing Inc raised slightly its 20-year annual forecast for delivery of new planes, driven by the strength of the narrowbody market fueled by demand from low-cost carriers.
Boeing projects that airlines will need to buy 42,595 planes between now and 2042, up from 41,170 in its 20-year forecast last year.
The latest projection — released on Sunday before the Paris Air Show — still falls short of the 43,610 new aircraft projected as part of the market forecast in 2021, when demand for Russian planes was factored in.
Boeing expects that narrow-body jets like the 737 MAX or the A320neo family made by European rival Airbus (AIR.PA) will dominate aircraft deliveries, with 32,420 single-aisle aircraft delivered through 2042.
That demand will be driven by low-cost airlines, which are set to double the size of their existing fleets, Darren Holst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, said during a briefing to reporters ahead of the report’s release.
Deliveries between now and 2042 are also expected to include 7,440 wide-body aircraft, 1,810 regional aircraft and 925 freighters. Boeing expects about half of shipments of new aircraft to replace older models, while the other half will increase the airlines’ fleets.
“The end of the recovery happened very much as we expected it to, with some nuances and different dynamics,” Holst said, “such as lower demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrow-body jets increased.”
Boeing expects the global aircraft fleet to nearly double over the next 20 years, from about 24,500 aircraft in 2022 to 48,600 by 2042. A forecast last year predicted a global fleet of 43,470 aircraft in 2041.
The company also slightly raised its industry-wide passenger traffic forecast growth rate from 3.8% to 4%. Holst said that while the air freight market is taking a “small break,” the estimated 3% annual growth in trade over the next 20 years will provide a tailwind to future demand.
“I think we’ll see again how resilient air freight demand is because it’s always around 3.5% to 4%,” he said.
Although Chinese air traffic remained subdued in 2022, Holst said Boeing remains “very optimistic” about China, which will account for 20% of the market, with the rest of Asia making up another 22% of demand.
Airbus, which published its market outlook on Wednesday, also raised its delivery forecast, estimating that 40,850 new aircraft will be delivered to customers through 2042.
Reporting by Valerie Encina; Editing by Jonathan Otis
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
“Reader. Infuriatingly humble coffee enthusiast. Future teen idol. Tv nerd. Explorer. Organizer. Twitter aficionado. Evil music fanatic.”