The value of the baht has “weakened” today, March 22, 2024, due to the Bank of Switzerland devaluing it. The dollar is strengthening

Mr. Pon Panichvipon, Capital Market Strategist, Capital Market Krungtai Global Markets Krungtai Bank He revealed that Baht Value Today Baht Value opened this morning. At 36.33 baht per dollar, it was “severely weakened” from the previous day’s closing level of 36.05 baht per dollar. Looking at baht today It is expected to be at 36.10-36.40 baht per dollar.

Since the night before Baht valueIt has been steadily weakening, breaking the 36.20 baht per dollar resistance area that we evaluated. (fluctuating in the range of 36.02-36.33 baht per dollar) under the pressure of the continued appreciation of the currency.Dollar bill Since the market learned the results of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting, which “surprised” the market by cutting interest rates -25 basis points to 1.50%, which pressured the Swiss Franc (CHF) to weaken severely. Subsequently, the dollar received additional support from the depreciation of the British pound following the results of the Bank of England's latest meeting, which led market players to estimate that the Bank of England has a chance to start cutting interest rates in June. Faster than expected in the third quarter.

In addition, the rise in the dollar put pressure on the price of gold back to -$30 per ounce. To the short-term support area again pressure on the baht to become more volatile and the currency depreciates after strengthening dollar and gold transaction flows.

Dimmer value trend

As for the trend of the baht's value, it is estimated that the reversal of the baht into depreciation will be greater than expected. This makes us reassess that the baht has a chance to fluctuate, decline, and test the resistance area of ​​36.50 baht per dollar. This may not happen easily. If European currencies, whether the British pound or the euro, continue to decline. Today's economic data report was worse than expected. Or reflects a further slowdown in the European economy. This will make market players more confident in the direction of interest rate cuts among major European central banks that may occur in the second quarter of this year.

However, the baht may receive some support. From exposure to financial market risks that foreign investors may still be able to return to invest in the Thai stock market. Especially at a time when the baht has weakened somewhat, in addition, we initially maintain the same Call Peak view on the baht at around 36.50 baht per dollar. Maintained as previously assessed on February 16 due to our view on the direction of the Fed rate remaining unchanged and the fundamentals ofThai economy Especially in the fieldTravelThere is a trend of improvement, as for the valuation, the value of the baht is about 36.50 baht per dollar. It is an area where the baht is reasonably undervalued, which makes us believe that a falling baht value will allow market players to gradually sell off RALLY USDTHB.

In addition, we would like to emphasize that during this period, the baht's volatility was higher than the historical average. (Given the weekly dimmed frame) Clearly we maintain the advice that entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging instruments, such as options, to increase efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risks. In addition to using the tools mentioned above, choosing to deal in the local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making any decision.

Opinions of market players who believe the latest economic forecasts and Fed policy interest rates. It still helps support the US stock market. Being in a state of exposure Meanwhile, Micron Tech's bright +14% earnings report also helped support the group's shares. Semiconductors can continue to adapt. Especially large stocks like Nvidia +1.2%, but the US stock market is facing some pressure and with Apple falling -4.1% after being sued for violating antitrust laws, the S&P 500 index closed the market around +0.32%.

shoreEuropean stock market The STOXX600 rose more than +0.90%, supported by European Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data reports that still look generally good, along with market players anticipating a gradual decline in interest rates from European central banks, sending all technology stocks higher. The growth pattern shares sharply. , such as ASML +5.6%, SAP +4.1%.

At the beachBond market The US 10-year bond yield continues to fluctuate near the 4.25% level after market participants believe that the Federal Reserve has the opportunity to cut interest rates three times this year, but during the trading period, the US 10-year bond yield rose somewhat. According to the US economic data report, most of them came out better than expected. However, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits (unemployment claims) and the PMI for the manufacturing sector, we maintain the same view unchanged. Continuing the downward trend of interest rates among major central banks, we see that if long-term bond yields whether the United States or other countries there is an increase in the short term. It will open the opportunity to buy long-term bonds gradually.

sideCurrency market The dollar turned around and continued to strengthen. This comes after the decline in the value of the major currencies, both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the British Pound (GBP), due to the gradual reduction of interest rates by the Swiss Central Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BOE). In this regard, the atmosphere is open to risks in the US financial market. And the opinions of market players who still believe the Fed is likely to cut interest rates about three times this year, limiting the rise in the value of the dollar. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) rose to approach the level of 103.9 points (oscillating in the range of 103.4 – 104.1 points), as well as the price of gold. A slight improvement in the continued rise of the dollar and the timing of the 10-year bond yield in the US, causing the price of gold (the COMEX gold contract for delivery in April) to fall significantly at around -$30 per ounce. $2180 per ounce area. Depending on the timing of the aforementioned adjustment to the price of gold. There is also pressure on the baht to depreciate. Follow the transaction flow for purchase of gold by market players.

Today, interesting economic data reports will mainly be found in European economic data reports. Both retail sales (Retail) in England and the German Ifo Business Climate Index, which may influence the direction of the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) in the short term.