Krungsri expects the baht to trade in the 36.50-37.10 range this week, weakening the yuan under pressure – Miti Stock

Equity Dimension – Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Limited Lackluster rating this week. There is a direction of movement in frame 3.6.50-37.10 baht/$ Compared to last week, the baht closed higher at 36.65 baht/$ after trading in a range of 36.60-36.85 baht/$, while the dollar strengthened against most major currencies last week. Although US retail sales in May were lower than expected and April numbers were revised lower than previously, this suggests that consumption is slowing and supports expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in September. The dollar received major support from concerns about monetary and fiscal policy outside the United States. The yen and euro hit their lowest levels in eight and seven weeks, respectively, and the Bank of England kept interest rates at their highest level in 16 years at 5.25%, but some policymakers said the decision this time was equal. This paves the way for opportunities to lower interest rates in the future. Meanwhile, British inflation slowed to the 2% target range, as foreign investors sold Thai stocks and bonds for a net amount of 10,680 million baht and 8,609 million baht, respectively.

Krungsri's Global Markets Group comments on the market situation this week.Which Investors will follow core inflation data on personal consumption expenditures in the US. We are of the view that the dollar may continue to rise as investors adjust their positions to reduce risks ahead of the elections in France on June 30 and July 7, pending an assessment of the trend regarding fiscal discipline as well as the Bank of Japan's stance. The Bank of Japan remains cautious in adjusting policy to normal. Including the fact that Chinese policymakers allowed the yuan to fall. All of these things limit the selling pressure on the dollar in this period. This is despite data indicating that inflation and the US economy are declining.

For internal factors, investors will focus on economic stimulus measures and the current account balance. The Ministry of Commerce stated that May exports increased by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. The value of exports reached the highest level in 14 months, while the value of imports in May shrank by 1.7%, resulting in Thailand achieving a trade surplus of $656 million, and officials expect exports in June to continue to expand continuously. At the same time, factors include Geopolitical issues that will affect ship freight rates that must be monitored in the coming period.

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