Whether it's Biden or Trump, Asia can't be trusted.

Robert Kelly, an expert on US politics from Pusan ​​National University, wrote an opinion piece published by Channel News Asia in the past few days.Donald TrumpThe former US president received a lot of support upon his return to the White House after the Trump presidential debate.President of the United Stateswith “Joe BidenOn June 27

First discussion in the battle2024 US Presidential Election It looks like one of Biden's worst debate performances in history. Broadcast live on television, there was no cutoff or time off to think before answering.

Biden sometimes gave rambling answers. Some paused. Like he was still thinking. I forgot my answer and that makes peopleAmericanMost of them are concerned and have questions. Is Biden too old? If he takes officepresidentcontinue for another time

Amidst a heated debate within the Democratic Party, if it is left this way, it may not be useful. It is followed by the suggestion of whether or not to change the candidate in the fall. However, there is no guarantee that modifying the plan to send players on the field in the middle of the game will be able to defeat Trump

On the other hand, on July 1, the US Supreme Court decided to grant immunity to those who have held the office of President of the United States. resulting from the actions oftrump card Former presidents in office and under the constitution between 2017 and 2021 will not be able to be prosecuted. Trump's case is still in court. It is expected to be extended after Election Day (November 5), and if he wins and becomes President of the United States, he will certainly dismiss all the cases.

Supreme Court decision on Trump receivedImmunity rights It revolutionizes the responsibility of the President of the United States to the law. It seems to makepresidentAbove the law is particularly at odds with the spirit of the American Revolution. The guiding principles of the US Constitution that attempt to limit the power of administrators and leaders have created great concern in the United States. How will Trump use this law? If he returns as president next year?

Lost focus on foreign policy

If Trump returns to American leadership, there will be a major disruption in American politics. It has caused confusion in foreign policy. It tends to get worse.

If it is at home, Trump often speaks with anger and vengeance. With the promise that if he returns to office, there will be a broad crackdown on illegal immigration. And managing opponents including critics, the media and academics.

This will encourage resistance. Just as it did in the early days. After Trump took office last time, but this time the struggle may be more intense. To the point of seeing protests in the streets.

“The chaos inside the United States and the opposition in the first days of the new government will make Washington more interested in solving domestic problems. The focus is on foreign policy,” Kelly said.

However, regardlessBiden ortrump card They are likely to win the US presidential election in November. They are likely to focus less on foreign policy. They operate inconsistently by

Alzheimer's Leader Makes Negotiations Confusing

Biden's thinking limits and may affect the formulation of new foreign policies. It is likely that he will attend fewer meetings abroad. Because the financial situation is not very favorable.

One thing to accept is that Biden may be less able to act in unprepared contexts, such as direct negotiations with foreign leaders that would allow for deal-making. This often leaves the president needing to take direct action to resolve complex issues, which is particularly difficult for relations with Asia, where personal relationships between leaders are essential.

Biden’s role is diminished and it is causing conflict among officials. Empire building in the foreign policy office will make it easier for ambitious officials to reach out to Biden to persuade him to pursue their agenda.

This happens often in US foreign policy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Trump were too weak or too reticent to fend off dissent among officials. Biden seems to be following the same path. By the time his term ends, he will be 86 years old.

Trump-Biden Foreign Policy

If you remove the rhetoric of Trump and his advisers in the early days, the most dangerous foreign policy would be to withdraw from NATO. Or end the U.S.-South Korea alliance. These policies have been blocked by his team, most of whom are Republican foreign policy operatives, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton.

Trump indicated that he would keep a loyal person who would not withdraw or try to stop him. If he is re-elected, a second term as president.

However, he believes that the impact on foreign policy will be immediate. If Trump returns, Europe will immediately feel the impact on foreign policy. Especially the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has made it clear that he likes President Vladimir Putin of Russia and does not like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

In addition, Trump often talks about how he can end this conflict “in one day”, which of course is unlikely. But it seems he intends to cut off US aid to Ukraine. This puts pressure on Ukraine and may face conditions for giving up territory that Moscow's military used military force to seize. It is permanently given to Russia.

The biggest changes in Asia will be in the relationship between the United States, South Korea and Taiwan, which Trump has said will pull US troops from South Korea if he is re-elected and this will affect the atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula.

However, he may face strong opposition from members of Congress and foreign policy committees, as President Jimmy Carter faced in the 1970s when he tried to do the same thing.

But South Korea has already discussed nuclear development if Trump is elected. And other U.S. allies, such as Poland and Japan, may become nuclear-armed if Trump abandons them. That would increase the chances of nuclear proliferation elsewhere. Because Trump has no goal of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, a long-standing U.S. position.

While Taiwan risks being left behind by Trump. Because he often shows that he does not care or have an ideology to protect Taiwan. In fact, Trump often praisesPresident Xi Jinping Biden has repeatedly said he would fight for Taiwan. But Trump has almost dismissed the idea. This leads to Taiwan’s fate. There is no certainty.

How should partners prepare? With this type of leader

US foreign policy since World War II has often taken a liberal and internationalist approach. Opposing totalitarian ideologies such as communism and Islamic fundamentalism. Trump ignores these values. Adopting a bilateral and multilateral foreign policy without distinguishing between authoritarianism and democracy.

In fact, Trump seems to admire authoritarian leaders and their ability to run the country without laws or restrictions. They have done what Trump could not.

But even a second Biden administration will have its own drawbacks. The domestic chaos Trump is creating will have unpredictable and unreliable effects on U.S. foreign policy. U.S. allies in Europe and Asia should prepare well.

source: CNA