ASPS recommends investment strategies for December. – Inventory dimensions | Clearly indicates each investment

Stock Dimensions – Asia Plus Securities estimates that the overall investment picture for the Thai stock market during December will recover better. This is because interest rates, inflation and currency values ​​are on a downward trend. The trend of interest rates is upward. Along with economic trends, earnings of listed companies have gradually improved, including support from Thai and global funds to help support the stock market through the rest of the year.

Foreign risk issues began to ease. First of all, global inflation gradually decreased obviously. Especially in developed countries. There is an opportunity for adjustment downwards from the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, including a declining risk of recession in large economies, such as the United States and Europe, while the developing world has little risk. As for the risks that need to be followed up: 1). Geopolitical risks. The war situation between Israel and Hamas represents an important variable. Which, if it expands into regional conflicts, may lead to higher oil prices and inflation.

2) The effect of the El Niño phenomenon, which may lead to cost-push inflation. The latest ONI value is 1.5, which is in the area of ​​more El Niño events (ONI > 0.5) and is still at the highest level in 7 years 3) Trading value is weak coupled with the volume of short selling Thai stocks still high, causing Short-term stock market volatility. Coming back to the big picture, in the last three months (September-November 2023) the SET INDEX has fallen by more than -10%, a decline so deep that there is a PECENTILE level above 90% in comparison. With all available information for the past 48 years

However, the research department believes that SET will recover from many factors. Supporting Specific Factors 1) The new government is issuing gradual policies to stimulate the economy and continue to help the people. 2) The Thai economy grew during the period 2H23-1H24 in stages. The economic accelerator is the tourism sector. Government investment, exports and domestic consumption 3).Earnings per share growth for 2024 grows in double digits by 12.6% at 99.8 baht per share, setting the target index at 1,717 points. There is a significant upside in terms of money flow, which can be expected. Stimulus from both domestic and foreign investments, both from THAIESG, which is expected to come in to support approximately 1 – 20 billion baht over the rest of the year.

At the beginning of next year, the stock market will establish the SET50FF and SET100FF indexes, making institutional stocks and new funds based on this index must be issued. In terms of flow, foreigners have greater opportunities for flow. At the end of an upward interest rate trend, this may cause the value of the dollar to gradually decline. Or the value of the baht could change and strengthen. Including the fader, it should be more stable. After the trade balance was better than expected, it will support the flow of funds to gradually flow back into the Thai stock market during the remainder of the year and next year. Along with foreigners receiving additional profits from foreign currencies.

The December strategy recommends buy and hold by diversifying investments into stocks with good fundamentals in a variety of sectors such as TISCO, WHA, ADVANC, GULF, CPALL, PLANB, BH, PTTGC, and the index target is still expected to return to touching 1,500 points. at the end of the year and 1717 the following year.

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