Asia Plus 20 stocks are set to benefit from a strengthening POT and shares traded by NVDR that are FUND FLOW targets for the period, indicating more inflows into the stock market in the second half of the year. Get the downward trend of interest rates The central bank is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. Meanwhile, the economy is gradually recovering.
The research department of Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) expects FUND FLOW in the stock market in the second half of the year, including:
Short-term -> Starting in 2H24 (1-5 July 2024), when the UPTICK rule is in effect, we see short selling volume averaging 1,509 million baht per day. (at a rate of 12.88% of trade value), down 6,174 million baht per day from the previous month. (Represented as a ratio of 4.47% to trading value) Next, buying power through NVDR rose to 4.8 billion baht, which was a net sell of -15 billion baht from last month, while direct selling pressure by foreigners decreased to -845 million. Net sales differed from 72,813 contracts.
Longer term -> In the 3rd quarter, the FED WATCH tool has the possibility of continuing to cut interest rates by %, narrowing the gap between Thai interest rates and bond yields creating an even narrower segment. Pot support to have the opportunity to strengthen in the medium to long term. Because foreigners have the opportunity to profit from the additional exchange rates of the Thai stock market. And the economic trend is gradually likely to recover little by little
Hence, the research sector screens stocks that could benefit from a strengthening bot. And the top 20 most traded stocks by NVDR, during this period, could be FUND FLOW targets as follows:
Stocks benefit from strengthening BOT* groups with higher costs or foreign currency liabilities GULF BGRIM MINT PTT PTTEP PTTGC AAV
A group focused on importing TFG TVO
Larger stock group expects fund flow to KBANK SCB BBL TTB PTT PTTEP PTTGC or IVL CPN CRC AWC CPAXT.
However, in the period from 2023 to 2024, the differential in US bonds is higher than that of Thailand (in the past, Thailand was higher than the US), causing money to flow out of Thailand from many regions. Inflows from FCD foreign currency accounts increased by more than 400 billion baht, while inflows to FIF foreign funds increased by 100 billion baht over the same period.
The issue forced the baht to depreciate by 13%, resulting in foreign equity and debt portfolios losing a lot from exchange rates. In addition to the 22% stake losses, foreigners rushed to sell 300 billion baht worth of Thai shares and 200 billion baht worth of debt instruments during the period.
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