Baht value today, March 12, 2024 “stable”, watch US CPI inflation tonight.

Mr. Pon Panichvipon, Capital Market Strategist, Capital Market Krungthai Global Markets Krung Thai Bank revealed this Baht Value Today Baht Value opened this morning. At 35.40 baht to the dollar, “stable, unchanged” from the previous day’s closing level.

Looking at baht today It is expected to be at 35.35-35.50 baht per dollar. In the period before the market realizes the rateEconomic inflation US CPI The baht range is estimated at 35.25-35.65 baht per dollar. During this period, the market gradually recognized the inflation rate in the US CPI.

Since last night the baht has been moving sideways (oscillating in the range of 35.37-35.45 baht per dollar) according toStrong recoverySome things have gone up.Dollar bill This supported the atmosphere in the US financial markets. Which remains closed to risk and market players are more cautious ahead of the US CPI inflation report on Tuesday evening (7:30 PM local time in Thailand). Furthermore, the baht continues to face pressure from purchasing transaction flows. After the baht strengthened moderately in the short term and as a result, the baht cannot easily consolidate beyond the support area of ​​35.30 baht per dollar.

Dimmer value trend

For the baht value trend we estimate that the baht may fluctuate sideways in a range near 35.40 baht per dollar. In the run-up to the recognition, the US CPI inflation report was released because market players are clearly in no hurry to adjust their positions, and the baht may also face some downward pressure. Follow the flow of transactions to sell and profit from Long THB positions (Baht to Boost), including the flow of transactions to buy dollars from some importers. After the baht strengthened somewhat in the short term In addition, the sales forceThai stocksMaybe there is still some. According to the risk tolerance atmosphere of the financial market as a whole, although the baht will face some downward pressure, we expect that before receiving the US CPI inflation report, the baht may not fluctuate and its value will decline beyond the resistance level. The dollar goes a long way, except that during the recognition of the British labor market data report around 2:00 PM, the British Pound (GBP) will fluctuate and fall significantly. Whether Britain's total employment or wage growth rate has come out much worse than expected. As a result, market participants have begun to estimate that the Bank of England may cut interest rates faster than in the third quarter, which is the period the market is currently anticipating.

More importantly, you should be careful of volatility when the market gradually receives the US CPI inflation report around 7:30 PM because if the US inflation rate does not slow down as expected. (Should monitor %y/y and %m/m data or monthly momentum changes) It may cause market players to return to worry about the Fed's tendency to cut interest rates, leading to Dollar billAndUS bond yield It is not difficult to see the opportunity for further volatility, putting significant pressure on gold and baht prices. There is a possibility that the baht will weaken beyond the resistance level of 35.50 baht per dollar. Move on to test the next support area around 35.65 baht per dollar.

On the other hand, if the US CPI inflation rate slows as expected or may slow a little more than expected. We believe this may not help the dollar and the 10-year US bond yield fall much further from current levels. This is because market players have already learned about the trend of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year about 3-4 times. As a result, the baht may strengthen and remain in the support area of ​​35.30 baht per dollar.

We would also like to emphasize that during this period, the baht's volatility was higher than the historical average. (Given the weekly dimmed frame) Clearly we maintain the advice that entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging instruments, such as options, to increase efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risks. In addition to using the tools mentioned above, choosing to deal in the local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making any decision.

US stock market Still faces pressure from gradual selling for profits on large-cap technology stocks such as Meta -4.4% and Nvidia -2.0%, as well as other growth style stocks in order to reduce portfolio risk. Before receiving the US CPI inflation report on Tuesday evening. As a result, the Nasdaq General Index of technology stocks fell -0.41%, while the S&P 500 closed the market at -0.11%.

shoreEuropean stock market The STOXX600 index is still down -0.35% after selling pressure in big technology stocks and growth stocks as well as in the US, led by ASML -4.2%, SAP -1.9%, however, the European stock market is still receiving some support from the rise in defensive group stocks such as Healthcare group such as AstraZeneca, +2.5% and Roche, +1.6%.

On the bond market side, although the atmosphere in the US financial market will be in a cautious state, such concerns come from the US CPI inflation issue and the interest rate trend pursued by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rise in bond yields. The US ten-year rate gradually reached approximately 4.10% again. However, one should be wary of the volatility of bond yields. . Which may turn around and adjust higher if US CPI inflation does not slow as the market expects, or in the worst case CPI inflation accelerates, to the point of “surprising” market players and “us”. But the risk and reward of buying long-term bonds are still worth it. It makes us believe that investors can gradually increase their investment position. Or investors may wait for the moment to buy the dip as well (they may focus on gradually buying into the US 10-year bond yield area above 4.20%).

On the currency market side, the dollar has strengthened somewhat. This is in line with the risk situation in the US financial market, and in addition, market participants are cautious and may adjust their positions, such as gradually reducing long Japanese Yen positions after the Japanese Yen has strengthened rapidly and strongly. in the previous period. Before receiving the CPI inflation report Tuesday evening. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) is still oscillating near 102.8 points (oscillating in the range of 102.6 – 102.9 points), as is the gold price. Market players are waiting to learn more new factors, especially the US CPI inflation report, which is causing the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for April delivery) to continue to fluctuate sideways near the $2180-2190 level per ounce. In some markets, gradually selling some of the gold to make a profit. These transaction flows also help encourage the baht to strengthen and reduce the low pressure on the baht.

Today, one of the most important events that market players will be closely awaiting is the US CPI inflation report in February. Market players expect CPI inflation may remain stable at 3.1%, while core CPI inflation excludes the effects of energy and fresh food. It may slow slightly to 3.7%, giving the Fed a chance to cut interest rates somewhat gradually this year.

On the European side market players will wait and see. British Labor Market Data Report This may influence the monetary policy decision of the Bank of England (BOE).