HoonSmart.com >> CGS: Trend Spotter sees stocks fluctuating by 1,400 +/- 10 points today, awaiting the MPC meeting and digital money announcement, suggesting bank stocks will benefit from interest rates.
Trend Spotter's CGS International Securities (Thailand) rates SET today (April 10) anticipating a volatility of 1,400 points +/- more than 10 points, awaiting the MPC meeting and digital currency announcement. After a sharp rise yesterday due to speculation about the results of the two aforementioned topics, including measures to stimulate the real estate sector and news of Thailand’s push to become an entertainment complex.
If you evaluate from the numbers… the Bank of Commerce should cut interest rates in April. (today) based on headline inflation in March. 2024 fell by 0.5% y/y, while core inflation rose by 0.4% y/y, including lower expected economic growth numbers (2023 GDP: +1.9% y/y).
Stocks that will benefit from interest rate cuts in the retail sector from the bottom-up analysis are LPN SPALI, SC, AP, CRC, DOHOME, and GLOBAL. Our top picks are CRC, while real estate is AP
CGS decides the fate of interest rate cuts or not? Strategy this morning
Introducing a tactical playing strategy for day traders: Buying Stocks of Big Banks (BBL) along with Buying Investments (KKP) of Medium and Small Banks. Which benefits from the Monetary Policy Committee's “reduction” of interest rates if this happens
However, if the MPC decides to “hold” interest rates we believe that the share prices of large banks may rise in the short term and the groups that benefit from lower interest rates will be forced to take profits.We view KKP as a stock in the lower zone. If sold for a profit, the stock price has limited downside risk.
Recommended stocks
Convention on the Rights of the Child : We believe that CRC is the group that benefits most from interest expenses. Each 25 basis point rate cut will increase CRC's FY24/FY25 net profit by 0.7%/1.2% respectively.
We recommend Overweight in the retail sector, and our top choice is CRC (from CPALL).
AFP:
We expect AP to have pre-sales and net profits this year, the lowest in 1Q24 at 9.5 billion baht and 1.23 billion baht.
It is believed that AP will benefit from the trend of interest rate cuts in the second quarter of 2024 because it has a high proportion of medium to advanced projects.
KCE …interesting risk reward.
KCE is expected to benefit from a rebound in global PCB demand in 2024, led by demand for applications such as servers, smartphones and computers.
In the case of KCE, we believe this means that competition for customers will be reduced. Including pressure that causes the company to reduce selling prices. In addition, although auto parts manufacturers (Level 2) adjust inventory levels, demand for PCBs in cars is likely to decline less. of demand for automotive semiconductors because we believe excess PCB inventory should be completely depleted from 2023.
KCE is expected to achieve organic EPS growth of 36% YoY in FY24 from higher TSP due to 1) lower raw material prices. The construction and automotive sectors, which remain weak worldwide, should help control prices of key raw materials such as fiberglass and epoxy resins, including 2) higher capacity utilization rates, 3) strict cost control, and 4) price-driven Exchange (foreign currencies)
Still recommends “buy” with a target price of 50 baht.
#Macroeconomic and wealth research
#CGS International
“Reader. Infuriatingly humble coffee enthusiast. Future teen idol. Tv nerd. Explorer. Organizer. Twitter aficionado. Evil music fanatic.”