Foreign risk problems began to subside. To begin with, global inflation has clearly declined gradually. Especially in developed countries. And there is likely to be a gradual downward adjustment from the start of the first quarter to 2024, with little risk to growth, including the risk of recession in major economies such as the US and Europe.
Regarding risks to pursue 1) Geopolitical risks The Israeli-Hamas war situation is an important variable. This could escalate into inter-regional conflicts which could lead to higher oil prices and inflation.
2) Impact of El Nino can create price hike inflation. The latest ONI indicator value is 1.5, which is in the zone of high El Niño events (ONI > 0.5) and is still level. 7-year high
3) Trading value is thin with the volume of short-sold Thai stocks, which is still high, causing the stock market to fluctuate in the short term. Coming to the overall picture, the SET INDEX has fallen by over -10% in the last 3 months (Sep. – Nov. 2023), a very deep decline to the extent that the PECENTILLE level is over 90% in comparison. . With all information available over the past 48 years
But the research department believes that SET will recover from several factors. Supporting Specific Factors 1) The new government is gradually releasing policies to stimulate the economy and continue to help the people. 2) Thai economy grows gradually in 2H23-1H24. Economic Accelerator Tourism Sector. Government investment, exports and domestic consumption
3) EPS growth 2024 double-digit growth of 12.6% to 99.8 baht/share, setting target index at 1717 points, significant upside. In terms of financial flow, it is expected to get a boost from both domestic and foreign investment capital. THAIESG is expected to provide support of around 1 – 20 billion baht throughout the year.
Early next year, the bourse will create the SET50FF and SET100FF indices, creating company stocks. New funds should be released based on this index. In terms of flow, foreigners are likely to come in more. At the end of an upward interest rate trend, the dollar may gradually depreciate. Or the pot’s value can return and strengthen. Including the bot, it should be more stable. After the trade balance is better than expected, it will support financial flows that will gradually return to the Thai stock market next year and the year after. Foreigners earn additional foreign exchange profits.
Strategy for December recommends buy & hold by diversifying investments into stocks with good fundamentals across sectors like TISCO, WHA, ADVANC, GULF, CPALL, PLANB, BH, PTTGC.
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