The world must prepare for record temperatures
The UN has announced that there is a 60% chance of El Nino forming by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon typically associated with increased temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world, and increased rainfall in others (photo caption).
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The UN warned on Wednesday that the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to develop this year and push temperatures to new record highs.
The World Meteorological Organization now estimates a 60% chance of an El Nino by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that is usually associated with increased temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world, and heavy rains in others.
This last happened in 2018-2019 and led to a particularly long episode of La Niña, which causes the opposite effects and especially temperature drops.
Despite this moderating effect, the last eight years were the hottest on record.
Without La Nina, the warming situation would have been even worse.
It “acted as a temporary buffer to global warming,” WMO chief Petteri Talas said in a statement. “The development of El Niño could lead to a new peak in global warming and increase the chances of breaking temperature records,” he warned.
And more serious
At this stage, the intensity or duration of El Niño cannot be predicted. The latter was considered weak, but between 2014 and 2016 the former was powerful and had disastrous consequences. The WMO pointed out that 2016 was the “warmest year on record due to the ‘dual effect’ of a very strong El Niño and warming caused by human-induced greenhouse gases.”
The effects of El Niño on temperature are generally felt the year after the weather event appears, with the WMO underlining that its impact will be felt most in 2024.
“The world must prepare for the development of El Nino,” warned the head of the organization.
He said it could “provide a respite from the Horn of Africa drought and other La Nina-related impacts, but trigger more extreme weather and climate events.” He underlined the need to set up early warning systems – one of WMO’s priorities – to protect the most vulnerable populations.
No two El Niños are alike and their effects depend on the time of year, the WMO said, adding that it and the National Weather Service will closely monitor developments in the next predicted episode.
Rain and drought
This event occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months. This is generally associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Niño typically causes heavy rainfall in southern South America, South America, the Horn of Africa, and parts of Central Asia, while El Niño can cause severe drought in parts of Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia.
During boreal summer – the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere and cold in the Southern Hemisphere – warming surface waters caused by El Niño fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while inhibiting hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin. WMO.
AFP
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