Finance Cyrus expects stocks to fluctuate downward Concerned that the Fed will postpone budget cuts until the second half of the year – Honsmart

HoonSmart.com>> Finansia Syrus Securities expects the stock market to swing sideways to downward in the range of 1,370-1,384 points today. The pressure on US economic numbers, both jobs and factory orders, is better than expected. Fears that the Fed will do so. Delaying interest rate cuts for half the year instead of June In addition, the price of oil continues to rise. It sent US bond yields and the dollar index stable at high levels

Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET index to swing sideways downward in the range of 1,370-1,384 points, under pressure from a negative investment climate from abroad. Following better-than-expected numbers for the US economy, both job openings and factory orders caused the market to return to concerns that a Fed rate cut could be delayed to the second half of 2024, rather than June. Although the number of times may be less than previously estimated. In addition, crude oil prices continued to rise due to the war situation in the Middle East. The growing tension between Russia and Ukraine is another factor that will put pressure on inflation in the coming period. As a result, US bond yields and the dollar index will remain stable after rising in the previous period, which will limit the upside of risky assets in the short term. condition. Other important economic numbers this week include the ISM, services sector and non-farm employment.

Domestic factors track inflation numbers released on Friday. We maintain a positive view in the medium-long term of accelerating the disbursement of the fiscal year 2024 budget, which will begin in the second quarter of 2024, including the digital money policy that will become clear on April 10, while the budget meets next week. We believe the interest rate will remain at 2.5%, but if we cut interest rates it will surprise the market and be another support. The overall picture also gives weight that the index has likely crossed its lowest point after the economy and listed company earnings. It is likely to gradually accelerate this year.