Mette Hoon – Ms. Willasini Boonmasong Song, Senior Director of Research, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GPS Evaluate the trend of the Thai stock market index this week. It is expected that there will be an opportunity for a sideways swing in the hope that new rounds of economic stimulus measures will come. At the same time, we continue to monitor the release of US CPI and PPI data this week to assess the position of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the unit of the Federal Reserve (FED) that sets interest rates. The direction of interest rate policy after several Federal Reserve officials expressed their opinion that inflation in the United States remains high. Therefore, the interest rate should not be reduced this year. The indicator's movement range is 1,360 – 1,385 points.
Meanwhile, local factors are still tracking the Mobile Cabinet Meeting No. 3/2024 in Phetchaburi Province on May 15, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) announced the industrial sector confidence index and the deadline for submitting financial statements in the first quarter of 2024. As for For external factors, on May 14, the European Union will announce its economic confidence index for May. US announces April Small Business Confidence Index and April Producer Price Index On May 15, US announces April Consumer Price Index April Retail Sales May Housing Market Index and oil stocks Weekly on May 16, US announces No. People applying for unemployment benefits. and House Construction and Building Permits Figures In April, the NESDB announced GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024.
Therefore, recommending stock investment strategies that are expected to be included in the calculation of the SET50 index that will be announced in mid-June, and whose data until mid-May will be used by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to consider. The account will go into effect in the second half of this year between July 1 and December 31, 2024. Stocks expected to be included in the account include BCP, BJC, ITC and TIDLOR.
As for the direction of investment in gold Mr. Natthawt Wongiawarak is Director of Research at Globeplex Securities The gold price trend is estimated to have responded to positive factors from the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits rising by 22,000 to 231,000 last week. This is the highest level in more than 8 months, and the 10-year US government bond yield fell to 4.45%, which was a support factor for the gold market. The reason behind this is that lower US bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. This is because gold is an asset that does not have a return in the form of interest.
However, it is still necessary to monitor the dollar index. This is compared to the six major currencies in the currency basket. It rose to 105.3, putting pressure on the gold market this week. Recently, Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashari said the Fed may need to keep interest rates high for the remainder of this year. This is because inflation remains high and the housing market is strong.
At the same time, the gold price responded to news of the war between Iran and Israel, causing the gold price to move against the dollar. While the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in September and December, this is a supportive factor for gold prices. We recommend following the US inflation index reports. If it falls as expected, it will be positive for gold prices. Recommended speculation in the $2,330-2,380/oz frame
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