Good indicators of year-end capital flows with 4 major trends for 2024

The final turn of 2023 begins to show signs of capital inflows. After the Fed sent a signal to cut interest rates in 2024, the Thai stock index returned last week to stand above 1,400 points, hoping the trend of foreign capital from window dressing, K Bank Private Banking recommends four major investment trends to deal with fluctuations in… Economy. 2024.

Last Friday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,405.09 points, an increase of 1.01% from the level of the end of last week. Meanwhile, the average daily turnover reached 35,881.28 million baht, a decrease of 18.16%. KASIKORN SECURITIES LIMITED I think it's the last week of this year. The Thai Stock Index has support levels at 1,390 and 1,370 points, while resistance levels are at 1,430 and 1,450 points, respectively.

Kasikorn Research Center estimates that important factors to watch this week include the trend of foreign capital, window dressing or adjustments to institutional investors' year-end plans. It will have an ongoing impact on the Thai stock market, however, there are still factors to be wary of. It is the situation in the Red Sea and the war between Israel and Hamas that still needs to be monitored.

Compatible withAsia Plus Securities Company It is reported that investment capital from foreign investors (Fun Flow) has started to return to buy Thai stocks in the recent period, to the tune of 6,700 million baht, and there is a chance that Fun Flow will continue. Like the final curve of 2022, foreign investors came in to buy a net amount of 21 billion baht, causing the Thai stock index to rise by 4% during the final curve.

In addition, there are investments from ThaiESG Which has begun to come in and is expected to be no less than 10,000 million baht, in addition to the atmosphere at the end of the year of an easy e-receipt procedure to stimulate government spending. It is estimated that there will be at least 70,000 million baht of money in circulation.

4 recommended mega trends for investment in 2024

KBank Private Banking in collaboration with Lombard Odier summarizes 4 major investment trends resulting from various factors. It occurs all over the world and in light of the fluctuations of the current global situation as follows:

1. Great wealth transfer By 2030, high-net-worth individuals globally will transfer $18.3 trillion worth of wealth, with more than 70,000 high-net-worth individuals in the Asia-Pacific region transferring wealth worth approximately $2.5 trillion (about $88 trillion). baht), which will be achieved by a new generation interested in and looking for investment opportunities in new forms of assets. Whether investing in technology, digital finance, private equity, venture capital, etc.

2. Lombard Odier Sustainability Revolution Clearly, the business model is changing. From doing business the old way called WILD (extravagant – extravagant, idle – too much, unbalanced – not comprehensive and sloppy – dirty) to doing business in a way called CLIC® (Circular – can be generalized. Lean – complete and comprehensive efficiency) – in Accessible to all categories of people, and clean – clean). This change will create investment opportunities worth more than US$5.5 trillion (more than 190 trillion baht) annually. New investment opportunities. This major step will increase returns and reduce risks on the investment portfolio as well.

3. Transportation abroad Previously, most investors tended to diversify their investments abroad. Because there are more options and investment opportunities. But nowadays local investment service providers and consultants can offer investment products, allowing investors to invest in the country with the same opportunities and options.

Furthermore, in the past decade various government and organizations around the world, property inspections have become more stringent. It does not just address taxes. Instead, it addresses cross-border capital flows and wealth holdings abroad. As a result, many investors choose to return their investments to invest in the country.

4. Current macro environment Volatile market, rising interest rates, more inflation, energy concerns, climate crisis and geopolitical situation. This has led to uncertainty for the economy at the macro level. It affects the economy in many ways, for example, the economic cycle from the original period of 7-10 years will become shorter and change rapidly. There are more times when the economy is bad than times when the economy is good.

Investment management using traditional diversification (traditional asset allocation) may not be able to generate returns for investors. But risk-based investment diversification (risk-based asset allocation) must be a response to economic conditions.

Look at 3 factors that support the market's uptrend.

side Paipun Nalintarangkun chief executive officer TESCO SECURITIES LIMITED The Thai stock market is expected to return to the upside in 2024 under 3 conditions:

1. The government must manage the Thai economy to return to expansion at the 3-4% level continuously next year and the year after, especially in attracting foreign investment. Resolving household debt problems and, if implemented successfully, will return the Thai economy to expansion well in the long term.

2. The government should use the budget to maximum advantage. Especially measures to stimulate the economy if they are chosen to be effective for the target group. It will have a ripple effect on the Thai economic system.

3. The state may not issue regulations in a format that does not comply with international standards. Because it may prompt investors to reduce investment. Market liquidity decreases and affects fundraising for the business

“If the three conditions can be met, the Thai stock market has a chance to come back and outperform the global stock market next year,” Paipon said.

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