Bangkok Thorakeit Organizing the 2024 Investment Forum Seminar “Exploring Investment Treasures… The World’s Era is Boiling!” During “5 Distinguished Stocks in Benjapakee That Make Profits” There Were “4 Experts” Thai capital marketLet's give an investment perspective for the second half of the year.Thai stocks“Stocks are still worth investing in.” Since the first half, Thai stocks have fallen by 50% compared to global stock markets.
All the “four gurus” have the same opinion that the Thai stock index will have a very limited downward trend. But there is still hope from the forecast. “GDP and limited corporate profits” The second half of the year was better than the first.
There are positive factors from the government to accelerate the disbursement of budget for the K industry, and the data center issue will be a supportive factor for growth, indicating that the earnings per share (EPS) is still at 90 times. Waiting for the time when “foreigners” stop selling and return to invest in Thai stocks, this makes investors choose to invest in stocks that are likely to grow in the second half of the year.
Mr. Vadimpop Songkroh The head of Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said that the direction of the Thai stock market in the second half of the year will remain “uneasy” for the next two or three months, and you may have to wait until there is a clear signal that makes the Thai stock market improve. Stocks will “immediately turn upside” in September
If all supportive factors come together, the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. The lineup of stocks will change from growth stocks to value stocks, making it interesting again. GDP for the second quarter of 2024 will be announced in August. Growth remains good since the first quarter of 2024, and growth has continued in the third and fourth quarters. Over the whole year, GDP grew by 2.5-2.6% as expected by the NESDB and BoT, or more.
Including monetary policy and fiscal policy. There should be no conflict on interest rate policy issues. With the political factors in the country resolved, there are no additional new risks. In addition, bullish measures starting on July 1 come to reduce volatility. It can also help increase investor confidence in the Thai stock market.
For investment strategiesThai stocksIn the second half of the year, Mr. Fadimphobe recommends investing in stocks that provide capital gains. And invest at the right time by looking at the outstanding shares divided into two groups for the first group of shares. Focus on long-term investment of 3-6 months, including TRUE 10.30 baht and ADVANC 275 baht, looking at the ICT group with low competition.
The second group of stocks focused on investing in short-term trading for 2 – 3 weeks, including SPRC 11 baht, oil prices rise, KCE stock 45 baht, although down from SET50, automobile production is weak. But fundamentals remained unchanged and second-quarter earnings of 2.20 baht TTB rebounded better than expected. I already received negative news
Mr. Kawi Chokasem, Head of Research and Content, Fay Securities Public Company Limited. He said the Thai stock market index was now approaching its lowest levels. There is still hope and desire to build confidence with “Thai stocks” in the second half of the year, and although they may “look unattractive”, there are still “beautiful” angles around these industries that attract foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment) rather than indirect investment in the Thai stock market
Most of them entered the new industrial era. Which has the opportunity to grow in the future to make Thailand still attractive includes renewable energy (green energy, electric cars, batteries, selling carbon credits) and data center businesses. Including the medical center which is still a strong point.
As for the short selling control measures, it is a way to weaponize the Thai stock market and it is believed that foreigners should find new methods. There is a chance to return to making profits from Thai stocks. From fundamental factors instead of short selling
Therefore, with the Thai stock index level down to 1200 points from last year's level of 1400 points and the stock price 12 times, it is considered cheap and a good point to invest in Thai stocks. It has been under foreign selling pressure for 10 years, worth $1 trillion, but Thai stocks are still able to withstand at this level, reflecting that the Thai stock market is “good” if there are no new risks, whether foreign or domestic factors. This year, Thai GDP grew by 3%. Looking at the Thai stock index this year, the support level of 1200 points and the resistance level of 1500 points are appropriate levels. Not much
“The current index level is 1,300 points, which is worth buying. If it drops below 1,300 points, it is considered an inexpensive point. Even if the risk decreases further, it is at a more beneficial point than the high-cost people who bought it previously.
toPremium sharesThe second half of the year focuses on value stocks, low PE, high dividends, and long-term holding, including BBL 187 baht, PE 5.5 times, dividend 5.8%, TU 19.10 baht, PE 12.80 times, dividend 4.6%, HMPRO 13.90 baht, PE 16.40 times, dividend 5.2%, SPALI 20.20 times, PE 6.2 times, dividend 7.2% and PTTEP 195 baht, PE 7.8 times, dividend 5.7%, and looking at next year all PE will decrease. There is an opportunity to get additional profits.
“Of course, the Thai stock market is interesting. Benjapakee’s recommended stocks over the past five years may still have negative returns. But I think with a long-term investment of 25 years, it will return positive.”
Mr. Surapon Weeramethikul, Assistant General Manager, Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited He said the Thai stock index which has fallen to 1280-1300 points is either appropriate or not. It is appropriate if we look at it from a structural point of view. Or a general overview of Thailand and both are measured by the growth of the Thai economy, the currency, and the growth rate of earnings of listed companies.
However, it is considered that the Thai stock index has fallen to 1280-1300 points, which is a big drop. Because if from June 2023 to June 2024 or 18 months before the global stock market outperformed while Thai stocks underperformed, down 50%.
So the decline in the index is a very big decline. From many contexts, whether from the economy that has just recovered by only 0.5% from the Corona virus (COVID-19) or the earnings per share (EPS) or earnings per share that only return 24-250 billion baht per quarter when compared to profits. This is in contrast to other countries that have made a big increase in the stock market and earnings per share.
For the next 6 months, as the Thai economy improves, exports will begin to return to their peak. Before a change of president that will support GDP growth in 3 consecutive quarters, we see that EPS at the earnings level should be able to stand at 90 times level, a support that makes the Thai stock market more interesting. It is foreign investment in data centers in Thailand and this will be an opportunity for Thailand in the future. This will support the GDP and EPS picture to improve further than the first half of the year.
“In the past, we didn’t have K, the middle leg or the upper leg, to fight with foreign countries or not, it was difficult, but in the last week or two, but the best data centers in the world are already in our region. The strong point is that it uses four times more electricity than an industrial factory, and it uses a lot of water in engineering to build a data center. But Thailand has less than 10,000 engineers, and it is not just the Gulf and Google that will invest in data centers, so data centers will be a new topic in our country that will be summarized in the profits that have already happened.
The P/E ratio is around 91.5x, Kasikorn Bank is looking at 90x, and the yield gap to the dividend yield over the next 12 months is 1480 points from 1280 points today.
For investment advice, there are two main themes: the data center theme and the theme from the transition to IOS18 is that the data center will benefit people including land sellers, electricity sellers and construction groups. Data center margins are expected to grow by 20% thereafter.
So the groups that will benefit are: COM7 target price 19.30 baht, DELTA target price 95 baht, PSL target price 10.50 baht, AMATA target price 23.10 baht, BGRIM 26.50 baht, including shipping stocks that will benefit from the recovery in the export sector. Which will accelerate in the third quarter of the year
Mr. Wichit Arayapisit, Investment Strategist, Al-Muharraq Securities Co., Ltd He revealed that the current Thai stock market index has recovered somewhat. However, we estimate that selling pressure from foreign investors may still exist. Given that confidence building measures such as short selling control (short selling), naked short selling (naked short selling) using the Uptick rule, the control of automated stock trading programs (Robot Trading), including incentives with ESG funds benefits, are not strong enough.
It is expected that in the third quarter of 2024, the stock exchange and regulators will add additional measures to enhance investment confidence. The Thai economy is also expected to recover and support the value of the Thai stock market to rise.
The Thai stock market will be more interesting if the profits of listed companies expand strongly. In the structure of the Thai stock market, additional new types of fast-growing companies can be added. In addition to retail, commercial and energy banks
Currently, Thailand's GDP is estimated to expand by 2.5-2.9% in 2024 and the P/E of the Thai stock market is estimated to be around 14-15 times, but in neighboring countries GDP will expand by 4-6% and in some countries P/E is only 10 times lower.
“After July 1, we have to see how effective the step-up rule is. It is unlikely that there will be an opportunity to ban short selling. It remains to be seen whether additional measures can be taken directly. If the measures are not strict enough, the risk remains.”
For premium stocks, we recommend: CPALL 72 baht, there is an opportunity to budget for both the second quarter of 2024 and the end of this year, up from the same period last year from the positive results of the economic recovery, ADVANC 260 baht, strong cash flow. Competition situation is lower. The higher income per phone number, 290 THB, has benefited more foreign patients in Thailand. Business profits are expected to improve every quarter, and the third quarter will be a high season,
COCOCO 16.30 baht Coconut water export business, the world's No. 1 exporter, profit trend is expanding quarterly and yearly. There will be new products to help drive sales in 2025, SGC 3 baht is a stock that has a chance to recover financially from the big losses in 2023, but operating results this year will clearly recover in mid-2024 onwards Loan balances are clearly expanding while bad debt volume is low at around 1%
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