The United States expects a protracted conflict in Ukraine. According to the head of the US intelligence service, Vladimir Putin seems to want to extend the war to Transnistria, at the risk of military expansion and the establishment of martial law in Russia.
We believe that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, during which time he still wants to achieve goals beyond the Donbass, “said US intelligence chief Avril Haynes at a conference.
Leaving the capture of Kiev, the Russian army was stationed in the south and east of the country, officially “liberated” in the separatist areas of Donetsk and Lukansk, Donbass, which would allow Moscow to fully control the Sea of Azov. And ensure regional continuity with Moscow-annexed Crimea in 2014.
“Temporary” relocation
But the relocation around Donbass is “temporary” and the Russian military wants to continue its progress to build a “land bridge” over southern Ukraine, Odessa’s largest port and the Moldavian border. , Mrs. Haynes explained.
U.S. intelligence believes the Russian military wants to “extend” the causeway to Transdniestria, which points to Moldova, which seceded during the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, and where the Russian military has a military base.
But he underscored that “if possible, Russian forces will achieve this goal in the coming months, they will not be able to reach Transnistria and include Odessa without dictating the form of public mobilization.”
Potential increase
He warned that the Russian president “hopes that the stability of the United States and the European Union will weaken as food shortages and rising energy prices worsen.”
Ms Haynes said Mr Putin’s aspirations were far beyond the capabilities of the Russian military, which “means that in the coming months we will move on a more unpredictable and increasing path.”
“The current trend is to increase the chances of President Putin returning to drastic measures, including the imposition of martial law, the diversion of industrial production or the possible military expansion to free up the resources needed to achieve his goals.”
“Stuck”
Gen. Scott Periyar, head of the Military Intelligence Service, described the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces as “stagnant”.
But he noted that this could change if Moscow formally declared war and mobilized more troops. “If Russia does not declare war and mobilize, the stalemate will continue and I do not see a way out for both sides,” he said.
“If they declare a mobilized war, thousands more soldiers will join the battle, and although they do not have to be well-trained or skilled (like the current forces), it will have a mass effect,” he warned.
Avril Haines, who oversees all US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and NSA, reaffirmed that Washington does not believe Vladimir Putin is ready to use nuclear weapons.
“We continue to believe that President Putin will order the use of nuclear weapons only if the Russian government or regime realizes an existential threat,” he said.
“If he thinks he is losing the war in Ukraine and NATO is intervening or preparing to intervene, the Russian president may seek it,” he said. But, even in this hypothesis, “he will send signals” before doing so.
This article was automatically published. Sources: ats / afp