Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) expects the baht to move next week (March 25-29) at 36.00-36.90 baht/$ from the market close on Friday, March 22 at 36.38 baht/$.
At the beginning of the week, the baht weakened in line with the overall movement of other currencies in the region, while the dollar's decline received support ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which it was expected that there might be revisions to economic estimates and views on the direction of US interest rates. In addition, the baht weakened in line with the yen. After the results of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting were in line with market expectations. (Both in terms of adjusting short-term interest rates to the 0.0-0.1% range, ending yield curve control, and canceling purchases of ETFs and J-REITs) while the BOJ Governor signals that the BOJ will not adjust your position. Towards strict control immediately in the near term.
The faded one came back to strengthen for a short time. After the results of the Fed meeting, although the Fed raised its economic and inflation forecasts for the United States as expected, the views of Fed officials on the official interest rate forecasts through the dot chart still reflect the possibility of reducing interest rates 3 times as it was. before.
However, the baht weakened again during the rest of the week. While the dollar was supported by signs of easing monetary policy from other central banks, such as the Swiss Central Bank, which cut interest rates higher than market expectations. And the Bank of England, which indicated that there may be an easing of monetary policy in the future. In addition, the baht has the additional downside of foreign investors' net short positions in Thai stocks and bonds. And the timing of the contraction in gold prices in global markets at the end of the week as well.
Next week, important factors to watch include the direction of foreign capital. Export numbers, economic reports and payroll reports for February Thai stuff
Meanwhile, important US economic figures include new home sales. Durable Goods Orders Total Number of Outstanding Home Sales Contracts Personal Income/Expenditures, PCE Price Index, February Core PCE Price Index, and March Consumer Confidence Index. GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2023 (final). In addition, the market is still awaiting industrial profit data for January and February. From China and the UK's GDP numbers for Q4 2023 as well.
By InfoQuest News Agency (March 23, 2024)
Tags: kbank, baht value, kasikorn bank, exchange rate, baht
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