KBank expects the “baht” range next week to be between 34.20 and 34.90 baht, a sign of foreign capital. Thai export numbers and economic indicators for November
Kasikorn Bank (KBank) Look at the movement Baht value next week (December 25-28) At 34.20-34.90 baht/$ from the market close on Friday, December 22, 2023 at 34.58 baht/$.
There are important factors to follow in the country. Including foreign capital signals Thai export numbers and economic indicators for November While important foreign economic figures Including the October house price index. Home sales await a close in November and the number of weekly unemployment claims in the US including November industrial earnings data in China.
Last week, the baht initially weakened in line with most currencies in Asia. Including a weak yen. After the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain monetary policy as before. It also does not send a clear signal about the timing of moving away from excessively loose monetary policy. While the dollar is supported by signals from officials at the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed). Reflecting that the timing of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 is unlikely to come soon. In addition, the baht's decline also coincides with foreign investors' net selling signals for Thai bonds.
The baht returned to moving in a narrow range mid-week amid light trading. But it moved to strengthen it at the end of the week in line with the rise in gold prices in global markets. While for the dollar, there are negative factors from the third quarter 2023 GDP figure for the United States, which was revised downward to expand by 4.9% annually, and from expectations about the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2024.
Regarding the status of the investment portfolio of foreign investors during the period from 18 to 22 December 2023 Foreign investors sold a net 3,713 million baht of Thai stocks and net outflows from the Thai bond market were 13,035 million baht (net bonds sold 6,144 million baht and expired debt instruments worth 6,892 million baht).