KBANK points to baht range next week of 34-34.80, keeping an eye on Thai exports and gold prices.

Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or Key Bank Considering the baht movement framework next week (August 26-30) at 34.00-34.80 baht/USD from the market close on Friday, August 23, 2024 at 34.27 baht/USD.

Initially – mid-week the baht gradually strengthened to its strongest level in 13 months at 34.07 baht/dollar, supported by better-than-expected Thai GDP figures (Thailand's GDP rose 2.3% year-on-year and was above market expectations for 2019). The economy expanded 2.2% year-on-year and was up 1.6% year-on-year.

While the dollar sentiment remains weak amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its September FOMC meeting, as well as rising gold prices in the global market, it also adds support to the appreciation of the baht.

However, the baht weakened slightly in the middle of the week until the end of the week. After the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the Thai interest rate at 2.50% as the market expected. In addition, the market started to gradually buy back dollars. To adjust positions before the Fed Chairman's statement at the annual Fed symposium in Jackson. Weekend hole

Moreover, the price of gold in the global market fell above the $2,500 per ounce level. Contrary to the recovery in US bond yields. It also played a role in slowing the appreciation of the baht.

Over the coming week, important factors to watch include the direction of foreign capital. Signals about the new government’s economic policy. Export figures, economic report and salaries for July. Thailand, including the state of gold prices in the global market. Meanwhile, important US economic figures include durable goods orders. Home sales are pending closure. Inflation is measured by the PCE price index, core PCE price index for July and consumer inflation figures for August. GDP figures for Q2 2024 (preliminary) and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the industrial profits figures for July. China also