Krungsri expects the baht to trade in the 36-36.70 baht/dollar range this week, pending US employment data. After inflation came in as the market expected. The central bank is expected to influence interest rate forecasts in the next period.
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayutthaya Public Company Limited has a view on the direction of the Baht this week with the Baht moving in a range of 36.00-36.70 this week compared to last week. The baht ended weaker at 36.39 baht/dollar after trading in a range of 36.24-36.54, as the dollar showed no direction against major currencies last week.
On the yen side, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) eased volatility during the Finance Ministry and Japan's Financial Services Agency held an emergency meeting. After the yen fell to a 34-year low, Japanese authorities' stance suggests they are ready to intervene in the market. It said speculators could be behind the yen's depreciation. And the authorities are closely monitoring the movements in the foreign exchange market. And currency should move according to fundamental factors Rapid adaptation is considered undesirable.
Coincidentally, trading in major currencies worsened over the weekend as the Easter period entered, while the baht hit a fresh 5-month low. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks for 113 million baht but bought bonds for a net amount of 14,758 million baht. In the first quarter of this year, the baht fell 6.4%, making it the weakest currency in the Asian region excluding Japan.
Krungsri Global Markets Group thinks investors will follow ISM data on the manufacturing and services sectors for this week's overview. Including nonfarm payrolls in March in the US. February's PCE inflation numbers came in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been split on when the central bank will start cutting interest rates. and give more apparent weight to labor market conditions in policy decisions. That makes this week's data important for future Fed interest rate projections.
Domestic Factors Headline inflation is expected to remain negative in March. According to the BoT, the Thai economy recorded slower growth in February. The service sector grew, but private consumption indicators remained stable. The private investment index rose from the previous month. Except for gold, exports declined. Meanwhile, the current account had a surplus of $2 billion in February. The BoT estimates the economy in March is still gaining momentum from the tourism sector, but exports and industrial production should recover. As for household debt at the end of 4Q23, it stood at 91.3% of GDP, up from 91.0% at the end of 3Q23.