Krungsri expects the baht to trade in a range of 35.65-36.30 this week. Fed's forecast is more reasonable – Siam Rath

Krungsri expects the baht to trade in a range of 35.65-36.30 this week, with the Fed's forecast more reasonable.

Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Limited has a view on the baht trend this week The baht this week tends to move in the range of 35.65-36.30 baht/$ compared to last week. The baht closed weakly at 36.10 baht/$ after trading in a range of 35.74-36.19, with the dollar falling in value against the euro but rising against the yen last week. After the comments of US Federal Reserve officials, including the content of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 30 and 31, were fully in line with investors' expectations. The report notes that many policymakers are concerned about the risk that the Fed will cut interest rates too quickly and want to see more evidence to believe inflation will continue to slow.

For an overview of this week Krungsri's Global Markets Group believes that the market will pay attention to the January Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index numbers in the US to further assess the direction of the Fed's policy. The dollar began to lose its upward momentum after recovering strongly since the beginning of this year. While market participants are reconsidering their expectations about US monetary policy, including the expected timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut, it has been postponed to June, which is more in line with the Fed's plans. In addition, it has begun… There are signs investors are becoming less concerned about the economy outside the US after European PMI results showed services sector activity is improving. Moreover, China's new economic stimulus measures are also helping to support confidence.

As for internal factors, the Ministry of Commerce revealed that Thai exports in January grew by 10% compared to the same period last year. This is the highest rate in 19 months, with positive factors stemming from improved global trade and a lower comparative base in the previous year. Meanwhile, imports increased by 2.6%, leaving Thailand with a trade deficit of $2.76 billion. The NESDB reported that GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 grew 1.7% from the same period last year and contracted 0.6% from the previous quarter. The economy in 2023 grew by only 1.9%, and is expected to expand by 2.2-3.2% in 2024. The weak momentum makes us believe that there is a greater chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to cut interest rates in mid-2024. This year

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