Equity Dimension – Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Limited There is a view on the direction of the baht this week and the baht this week tends to move within a range. 36.40-37.10 Baht/Dollar Compared to last week, the baht closed weaker at 36.78 baht/dollar after trading in a range of 36.56-36.99, with the dollar slightly weaker against the euro last week. The dollar index against a basket of major currencies initially hit its highest since May 1, while the yen fell to its lowest in nearly 38 years, with no signs of further easing.
Japanese authorities are intervening in the foreign exchange market for a new round. After the Japanese authorities spent more than $60 billion to support the yen in late April and early May, and in relation to US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, US GDP grew by 1.4% in the first quarter, up from 1.3% in the previous report. But it slowed from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The core inflation index for May slowed to 2.6% as the market expected, as foreign investors sold Thai stocks and bonds by a net amount of 8,770 million baht and 6,741 million baht, respectively. In the first half of the year and the second quarter, the baht depreciated by 7.1% and 1.0%, respectively.
For an overview of this week Krungsri Global Markets Group believes that the market will pay attention to the Fed Chairman's comments at the European Central Bank forum on the ISM index for the manufacturing and services sector. Fed meeting report including June employment numbers in the US In addition, the market will continue to pay attention to European politics. Britain will hold general elections on July 4, while in France, a far-right nationalist party won the first round of elections.
to internal factors Investors will be watching inflation in June. In Thailand, which is expected to slow slightly from the increase in May. Meanwhile, the Bank of England expects inflation to fall below the target range in the third quarter before returning to the range again from the fourth quarter of this year onwards. In addition, the Bank of England states that the current inflation target range is 1.-3%. It is doing a good job. While monetary policy does not keep inflation low, it is the result of structural factors and various economic conditions. Setting the inflation target should be consistent with economic fundamentals. In addition, the Bank of England stresses that the current interest rate is at a neutral level. But it is ready to make adjustments if necessary according to factors that will affect economic fundamentals.
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