Krungsri expects the baht to trade in the range of 34.00-34.65 this week, awaiting US employment numbers – Siam Rath

Krungsri expects the baht to trade in a range of 34.00-34.65 this week, awaiting US employment numbers.

Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Limited evaluates the baht to welcome the new year in the first week of the year as the baht tends to move in the range of 34.00-34.65 baht/$ compared to the last week. The baht closed stronger at 34.19 baht/$ after trading in a range of 34.11-34.73 baht/$ at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the baht reached its strongest level in five months, while the dollar fell against most major currencies last week. The dollar index fell 2.1% in 2023, the first year of decline since the 2020 Covid crisis, as the market increased expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in 2024. Futures show the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 points Basis of the Federal Reserve Bank. The first time in March. It will cut interest rates by about 150 basis points by the end of this year. The euro rose three percent as pressures on energy prices eased compared to their level a year ago when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. As for the yen, it fell by 7.6% in 2023 because the Japanese authorities still show a reluctance to adjust monetary policy. Other leading central banks continued to raise interest rates in the first half of the year, however, the yen fell significantly into the negative period in December as markets expected that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was close to making a decision to end its accommodative policy. In 2023, the baht rose by 1.0%, and foreign investors sold Thai stocks and bonds for a net amount of 192,490 million baht and 146,148 million baht, respectively, last year.

For an overview of this week, Krungsri's Global Markets Group revealed that the market will follow important US economic data such as employment, as well as the report of the Fed meeting on December 12 and 13, while the decline in the value of the dollar accelerates in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the Fed. . To be the first major central bank to start lowering interest rates. If the data indicates that inflation continues to slow at the beginning of the year, the market will see that it will be more difficult for the Fed to keep monetary policy tight for an extended period. There are other issues driven by the Chinese economic situation. Geopolitical risks affecting shipping costs for developing countries could also limit dollar selling pressures.

Internal factors: Investors will focus on the December CPI. Meanwhile, Thailand had a current account deficit of $1.2 billion in November. The Bank of England commented that the economy will continue to grow. And with overall more complete economic momentum, we expect uncertainty to remain high in 2024 both from within the country and outside it.

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