Mr. Poon Panichpipun, Money Market Strategist, Krungthai Global Markets, Krung Thai Bank This week the Baht range is expected to be 35.30-35.90 Baht/Dollar and today's Baht range is expected to be 35.50-35.75 Baht/Dollar. The baht opened this morning (Feb 5) at 35.59 baht per dollar, down sharply from the previous week's close of 35.24 baht per dollar. Pat's movements have been very volatile since last Friday and overall it has depreciated massively. (fluctuating in the range of 35.18-35.62 baht per dollar) is likely to strengthen in the period ahead of the US employment data report. The baht fluctuated from the US employment data report and quickly and sharply before depreciation. Turned out better than expected. This makes market players less likely to rush the central bank to cut interest rates. As a result, the dollar and US 10-year bond yields rose. Pressure on both baht and gold prices
Last week the US labor market remained strong and the central bank's stance that it was in no rush to cut interest rates caused the dollar to gradually continue to strengthen and hit new highs of the year.
This week, we expect to watch the results of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and follow the ISM PMI index report for the US services sector. CPI inflation updates and reports from central bank officials
We think that momentum has returned to the weak side after the baht quickly and strongly depreciated following the better-than-expected US employment data report for the baht's trend. However, one should be wary of volatility as the market gradually gets its results. The MPC meeting.. could put pressure on the baht if there is a significant downgrade of economic forecasts or signals that it is ready to use more accommodative monetary policy. Also, the baht could face additional pressure if foreign investors sell Thai assets. Especially in the short term bond segment. If the pod is heavily worn
As for the dollar, we think the dollar will continue to strengthen if the US economic data is reported. Statements by central bank officials are still convincing market players. The central bank may cut interest rates lower than market estimates (less than 5-6 times) and the dollar may find additional support if market players believe it. The European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates faster than the Fed. As a result, the Euro (EUR) fluctuates and weakens.