© Reuters (Additional) Thai stock market situation: Morning index trend swings sideways without new factors. Keep an eye on US inflation numbers this week.
InfoQuest – We expect the Thai stock market to swing sideways this morning, said Mr. Weerawat Wirojphoka, Director of Securities Analysis, Finansia Syrus Securities. There are no new factors supporting the index. On Friday night (January 5), US employment numbers were stronger than market expectations. This leaves the market still not confident that the Fed will cut interest rates in March.
Meanwhile, this week investors will be watching the US inflation numbers report on Thursday evening. As a result, the indicator is likely to swing sideways. If inflation numbers come out slowly and market pressure is expected to continue. However, if inflation numbers continue to fall faster than the market sees. It may build confidence and lead to a market recovery in the short term.
To invest during this period it is recommended to choose individually. If the situation seems calm, see the medical group. Retail groups should benefit from Easy e-Receipt's actions this month.
The support indicator is 1,420 points and the resistance is 1,435 points.
* Investment consideration issues
– New York Stock Exchange (January 5): The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 37,466.11 points, up 25.77 points, or +0.07%, and the S&P 500 closed at 4,697.24 points, up 8.56 points, or +0.18%. The Nasdaq index closed at 14,524.07 points, up 13.77 points, or +0.09%.
– Asian stock markets are open today. The Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened the morning at 16,581.86 points, up 46.53 points, or +0.28%. The Shanghai Composite Index of the Chinese Stock Exchange opened the morning at 2,923.46 points, down 5.72 points, or -0.19%. The Japanese stock market closed today (January 8), on the occasion of Coming of Age Day. Adulthood.
– The Thai stock market closed recently (January 5, 2024) at 1,427.96 points, down 6.63 points (-0.46%), with a trading value of 51,141.32 million baht.
– Foreign investors sold a net amount of 3,096.17 million baht (January 5, 2024).
– WTI crude oil was delivered in February. (January 5, 2024) rose 1.62, or 2.24%, to close at $73.81 per barrel.
– The latest benchmark refining margin for the Singapore market (January 5, 2024) was $7.50 per barrel.
– The baht opened at 34.62/63, stable, awaiting new factors. The market is waiting to see US inflation numbers
– Peravan still insists that electricity costs should not exceed 4.20 baht/unit, hoping for clarity this week. For groups using more than 300 units of electricity, the second installment of the electricity bill for 2024 has a better trend. EGAT says cash flow remains good. At the end of 2023 there will be 91,000 million baht.
– TAT has set a target for 2024 to encourage 200 million Thais to travel to Thailand – and aims to exceed revenues of 1 trillion, up 25% from 2019.
– (SET) A summary of the cumulative securities trading value by the investor group from January 2 to 5, 2024 found that domestic institutions bought a net 104.76 million baht, securities company accounts (brokers) bought a net 225.49 million baht, and foreign investors sold a net 2,087.64 million baht and local investors (individuals) bought a net 1,757.40 million baht.
– Stay tuned, as “SITA” is about to announce the progress of the digital wallet, revealing that “Kritsade” has sent opinions about borrowing money and distributing “digital wallets,” and within two more days the statement will be issued, indicating that there are no interruptions, and receiving suggestions regarding steps. This should be done while the current Cabinet reshuffle “big government” confirms there is no indication.
– The “bond market” remains in turmoil in the first quarter, with nearly 190 billion deals, revealing $38 billion in “high-yield bonds.” The industry suggests watching mid-January for the real estate group, complete with more deals, while trading… The world of social media is the news that ITD is required to pay the principal amount in installments for two years, and the “Thai BMA” confirms that it must consult with creditors before the “EIC” evaluates the real estate group – non -. Bank. Decreased ability to repay bonds
– The Securities and Exchange Commission (Board) Committee has scheduled a meeting for Wednesday, January 10 to set an important agenda for amending the standards. “Trading software” (trading robot), insiders say it will definitely not be canceled. But foreign investors must clearly show their identity. Phichit, president of the Securities Exchange Association, revealed that if they registered as usual, there might not be a problem. But we must see whether there is more or not. As for Baybon, President of the Analysts Association, he stressed that the problem must be solved directly. Or just the parts that really create problems? Sia Pong points out that the trading program will only affect short-term investors.
*Today's featured stocks
– TISCO (Maybank) “Buy” strategic target price (108.00), although the NPL trend still tends to increase depending on the industry. But this is likely to be gradual and with the coverage ratio in Q3 2023 reaching a high of 206%, it will have the ability to manage the cost of credit, which will reduce the risk of fluctuations in operating results. Regarding the dividend in the second half of 2023, it is expected to be paid at 6 baht per share and in 2024 it will be at 8 baht per share, or the equivalent of a dividend payout rate of 6% and 8%, which helps limit the downside. of stock price, interest rate direction, etc. Which has passed its peak and there is a possibility of lowering interest rates this year, which is considered a positive factor for the net interest margin since the second half of 2024.
– WICE (Liberator) Target “buy” price is 9.20 baht, and the Ministry of Commerce expects Thai exports in 2024 to return to expanding +2% year-on-year amid tensions from the Middle East. The Chinese and American economies still have the opportunity to support themselves. WICE's operating results for the year are expected to grow by approximately +29% to 256 million baht, and are expected to have passed the lowest point. There is no concern about reselling treasury shares. Which has an average cost of about 9.14 baht per share
– SFLEX (Finansia Cyrus) 'Buy' price target 5.60 baht, 4Q23 earnings expected at 44 million baht, +30% y/y but -9% q/q due to high seasonal expenses. But it's still considered a very good quarterly profit. Supported by the resolved issue of raw materials and transportation costs, and ending 2023 with expected earnings of 183 million baht + 233% YoY, the Starprint Vietnam deal will begin recognizing a 25% profit share from December 23 and support significant growth in year 67 and beyond. , and has the potential for long-term growth. As for the crude oil price trend this year, which is expected to slow, this is expected to be a positive factor for SFLEX operations, and we expect 2024 profits at 228 million baht + 25% year-on-year.
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