InfoQuest News Agency (04 June 2024)
Analyst It is expected that the Thai stock market today will have a chance to fluctuate upward. This is in line with positive factors for the stock market after foreign stock markets received factors supporting the April PCE inflation number in the US as expected, causing bond yields to decline and the Chinese manufacturing sector PMI to come out better, which helped support it. . Ready for resistance 1,355-1,360 points, support 1,335-1,340 points.
The Thai stock market trend this morning has a chance to fluctuate upward in line with foreign stock markets, said Mr Wirawat Wirojvuka, director of securities analysis at Finansia Syrus Securities. After the Thai stock market closed for a day yesterday, the US reported PCE inflation in April as the market expected. The 10-year US bond yield fell, making it a supportive factor for the stock market.
Meanwhile, China announced a better manufacturing PMI report yesterday, causing positive sentiment for regional stock markets yesterday. It is expected to have an impact on the Thai stock market today as well.
As for internal factors, there are no new factors. Other stock markets in Asia opened this morning with most moving into negative territory.
The resistance level is 1,355-1,360 points and the support level is 1,335-1,340 points.
* Investment consideration issues
– New York Stock Exchange (June 3): The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38,571.03 points, down 115.29 points, or -0.30%. The S&P 500 closed at 5,283.40 points, up 5.89 points, or +0.11%. The Nasdaq closed at 16,828.67 points, up 93.65 points, or +0.56%.
– Asian stock markets are open today. The Nikkei Index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange opened at 38,702.54 points, down 220.49 points, or -0.57%, the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened at 18,335.45 points, down 67.59 points, or -0.36%, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 18,335.45 points, down 67.59 points, or -0.36%. The Chinese Stock Exchange opened at 3,071.32 points, down 7.17 points, or -0.23%.
– The Thai stock market closed recently (May 31) at 1,345.66 points, down 5.86 points (-0.43%), with a trading value of 74,843.96 million baht.
– Foreign investors sold a net amount of 4,092.37 million baht (May 31)
– West Texas Intermediate crude oil price for delivery in July. The price of oil fell by $2.77, or 3.6%, to close at $74.22 per barrel.
The latest benchmark refining margin in the Singapore market (June 3) was $2.88 per barrel.
– The baht opened at 36.61 with a volatile movement trend. Watch the direction of the flow of the dollar and gold
– Thai Capital Market Analysts unite to invest in Thai Stocks in the second half of 2024, there is an opportunity to recover, and respond to various supportive factors. “Government Economic Stimulus Measures – Digital Wallet Project – LTF Funds Revival – Limited Corporate Dividends” Watching that the US-European economy may enter a temporary recession and as a result, fund flows have moved to Asian and Thai stock markets. We are looking forward to the end of the year when the SET INDEX will reach 1580 points, and regarding “risk factors” it is advisable to be careful of both issues. “Geopolitics – Federal Interest Policy”
“The Bond Association” reveals that the private bond market in the second half of 2024 expects the trend to return to “activity” again if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates faster than the market once expected by the end of the year, which has a positive impact on the decline in the “cost” of issuing Bonds are believed to attract more interest from private companies to raise funds, repeating the target of bond issuance this year to reach 900 billion to 1 trillion.
– “Crypto gold” trends in the second half of 2024 remain very attractive. “Continuing to Attract Investors” The Gold Dealers Association recommends watching for “Fed rate cut” signals to encourage risky assets to rise in price. After the first half, it is considered an asset that delivers “excellent” returns on investment, reflected by “gold prices” reaching a new all-time high. Cryptomind points to the end of this year as an opportunity. The “cryptocurrency market” entered a “bullish” state after the first “Bitcoin halving” phenomenon occurred.
– Chunlapan intends to ask the Council of Ministers to approve a package to raise more revenues. Both impose multinational corporate taxes of 20,000 million baht annually and a 7% value-added tax on products imported from the first baht. As for revenue collection during the seven months of fiscal year 2024, it missed the target by 39 billion baht.
– Atta revealed the results of the trade war between the United States and China, causing problems in the export of Chinese products. It affects the Chinese economy and as a result, Thailand may fail to achieve the target of 8 million Chinese tourists because in the first five months of this year (January – May) there were 2.9 million Chinese tourists traveling to Thailand, with an average of 480 thousand people per month, estimated for the year entire. The number of Chinese tourists will be 7 million, 12.5% below the target if the target is met for the remaining eight months of the year. We have to push Chinese people to visit Thailand to reach 600,000 people per month, and we have to wait and see in the peak season (October-December) whether it comes close to the target of 8 million people or not.
– TDRI academics are concerned that Thailand's financial stability is at great risk. After the government expects Thai public debt to reach 68.9% in 2027, political economists expect Thai GDP to reach less than 5%, criticizing the budget for increasing competitiveness too little. It is recommended to increase the investment budget
Deputy Finance Minister Chunlapan is about to revive the “easy e-receipt” measure while awaiting the launch of the digital wallet project at the end of this year, indicating that the Thai economy is uncertain. It is necessary to find short-term economic stimulus measures. The LTF indicates it can proceed immediately if the government gives the green light. The reason is that there is already a structure supporting it, and the information has recently been sent back to the policy department for decision-making. Waiting to discuss together again
– The Treasury has not yet reached a decision on whether to return the LTF or not. It suggests they may find a way for Thai ESG to flourish instead, and the SEC group is preparing to discuss with the SEC on June 12, an update to the disclosure process. “Stock Manipulation – Insider – Detecting False Information” hopes to be more effective along with discussing information disclosure in the event that a case goes to the news for violating securities laws.
*Today's featured stocks
– DELTA (Kasikornthai) base price at 79.0 baht, resulting in the company announcing an earnings recovery in the second half of 2024 from customer inventory levels that have begun to decline. We can believe the sentiment is positive from April's energy supply export numbers which increased 32% year over year, as well as reports of USCorePCE numbers in April which are starting to slow. Last month caused the market to adjust its view on the Fed rate cut this year, increasing 1 to 2 times as sentiment increased as well as technology stocks.
– KCE (Kingsford) “Buy” IAA consensus price target 52.00 baht) The company aims for 2024 revenue growth of ~4-7% YoY and GPM of 24%, with sales expected to rebound better in Q2/67, continuing To Q3 2024 from delay to Q1 2024 Gross margin is expected to gradually rise from Q1 2024 by 23% due to economies of scale. Reducing costs through automation and devaluation of the baht As for the future business plan, it will work to increase the proportion of HDI products due to the demand in the advanced technology market and expand the customer base to include telecom clusters and servers, and connect to artificial intelligence needs. The market expects profits in 2024-2025 to be 2.1 billion baht + 22% y/y and 2.3 billion baht + 12% y/y.
– GPSC (Finansia Cyrus) “Buy” price target 59 baht In the short term, sentiment can be expected to increase supported by lower energy prices and the baht turned into a cost boost Gas prices have fallen and new capacity from the SPP 2 unit of 100 MW will increase, Avada's profit share will increase , including the Taiwanese wind power plant that began producing electricity in May, and the company pledges to increase its current capacity of 6,575 MW to 10,440 MW in 2026 through investments. In countries such as India and Taiwan. In Thailand, there is an opportunity to gain additional production capacity from the opening of a new round of power purchase auctions, which should be in the second half of 2024. Single complex prices are expected to be announced during the second quarter of 2024, which will be positive for operating results in the period. Coming
By Jerayut Chanseongsakul/Ratchada Kongkhonthian