NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks: Vikings picks and leaders plus strategy

Welcome to our 2023 NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Tips. NFL Survivor Pools are gaining popularity and we’re still figuring out the perfect strategy for how to navigate them. If you needed proof of that, last year’s absolute carnage that saw many Survivor groups end before Christmas is enough to remind everyone how difficult it is to win a Survivor group, even if you do your research.

At their core, survivor pools look simple. Simply pick a team to win each week! There are 16 possible correct answers in non-bye weeks and there are at least 12 games to choose from even in huge bye weeks where six teams are on bye.

the athlete Betting and fantasy writers Adam Gretz and Renee Miller will walk everyone through the 2023 NFL season, make their picks, analyze teams, and dive into winning strategy.

In the past two weeks, Adam looked at some basic strategies and how NFL Survivor Groups work, and Renee delved into using her background as a neuroscience professor to look at how biases impact our choices and chances of winning a Survivor Group. .

Next week, we’ll go over some early season strategies for Weeks 2-4 assuming we can all survive Week 1. It’s good for us to take a look at the teams, how the coaches are going to use the players, and how the rookie quarterbacks are going to do in Week 1.

First week strategy

Renee Miller: As I mentioned in my preview article earlier in the week, I’m playing it safe for the first week. The main thing is progress, no matter the size of your group. Trust me, there will be some matchups that try to get one percent ahead of the team, especially in the major leagues. let them! You have all season to show how smart you are…but only if you don’t get eliminated this week.

Adam Gritz: I’m with you, Renee Let’s get the first week done and then start looking at some of the more advanced strategies and teams we might want to use. There are a bunch of good picks, including the Washington Commanders taking on the Arizona Cardinals. This may be Washington’s favorite team all season and you can salvage some better teams with the leaders this week. However, they are the second most popular band used.

First week of chalk picks

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Adam Gritz: If the goal in week one was to survive and move on to the next, then there is probably no better option this week than the Baltimore Ravens. They are double-digit favorites over a Houston Texans team that is not only one of the worst rosters in football, but also a rookie starting quarterback making his NFL debut (CJ Stroud). Not only do the Ravens have the highest probability of winning this week (80 percent), but they are also the most popular pick (about 33 percent). Should – emphasis on “should” – be good enough to get you through the next week.

The only problem with picking the Ravens is that they still have very good future value and you might want to hold on to them for a week when your league thins out a bit. The Week 3 matchup against Indianapolis (also against a bad team with a rookie quarterback and no Jonathan Taylor) is interesting for them, as is Week 8 against Arizona when your league might be really weak.

If you want to save the Ravens for a later date, Washington is probably the next safest pick here since they’re playing the aforementioned Arizona team that, quite frankly, may not win many games at all this season. The leaders also don’t have much future value as they are only favored in a few games the rest of the way. You’ll never get a better time to select Leaders and Sam Howell.

Renee Miller: My favorite choice for a safe start to the season is Minnesota (70.1 percent win probability, chosen by less than 15 percent of users). The Vikings are six-point home favorites over the Buccaneers and are widely expected to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the few Under-20 implied team totals for Week 1 (19.25 points). Tampa has two aging star receivers mixed with untested youth at TE and RB. I don’t see Baker Mayfield being the glue that holds this offense together. The third reason to love the Vikings in Week 1 is their upcoming schedule. When it comes to looking ahead, you should be mostly interested in the next six games or so, and Minnesota has some tough games out there (Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, 49ers, maybe even the Bears and Packers can give them a run on the road). You might consider saving the Vikings for Week 4 in Carolina, but I have another option circled for that possibility (burn: it’s San Francisco vs. Arizona).

Week 1: Contrasting shots

Miller: If you had to go against the grain in the first week, my ambivalent choice would be Seattle. The Seahawks are the 5.5-point home favorite over the LA Rams and come with a 68.3 percent win probability with the same team implied total as Minnesota: 25.75 points. As of this writing, only 3.1 percent of players choose them in survivor groups. Cooper Kupp does not appear to be a good fit for this game and is very much the shining light in the Rams offense. On the other side of the field, the Seahawks have one of the deepest sources of talent in both a WR and an RB and will bring back an offense that finished 10th in the scoring list last season.

Gretz: a truly A contrasting pick might be the Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina. The Falcons have a winning probability of 63 percent (the same level as Seattle’s 67 percent probability against the Rams), a pick rate of just 1.6 percent, and have marginal future value. Do you trust Desmond Ryder at the start of the season? Well, if you don’t do it now, you probably won’t trust him later against a better team. Atlanta takes on a rookie (Bryce Young), at home, in his first start with few weapons around him.