Opinion polls show that the Italian right-wing led by Meloni wins the elections

ROME (Reuters) – A right-wing coalition led by Georgia Meloni’s Brotherhood of Italy was on course for a clear majority in the next parliament, giving the country the most right-wing government since World War Two.

And Meloni, as the leader of the largest coalition party, is likely to become the first woman prime minister in Italy.

Meloni, 45, plays down her party’s post-fascist roots as a major conservative group. She has pledged to support Western policy on Ukraine and not take undue risks with the eurozone’s third largest economy.

However, the outcome is likely to sound alarm bells in European capitals and financial markets, given the desire to maintain unity in the face of Russia and concerns over the massive mountain of Italian debt.

A poll by state broadcaster RAI reported that the conservative party bloc, which also includes Matteo Salvini’s and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, won between 41% and 45%, enough to secure control of both houses of parliament.

“The center right is clearly ahead in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate! It’s going to be a long night but for now I want to say thank you,” Salvini said on Twitter.

Italian electoral law favors groups that have been able to conclude pre-polling agreements, giving them a huge number of seats compared to the number of their votes.

Ray said the right-wing coalition would win 227-257 of the 400 seats in the lower house of parliament and 111-131 of the 200-seat Senate.

Full results are expected early Monday.

Low record

The result culminates in a notable rise for Meloni, whose party won just 4% of the vote in the last national election in 2018, but this time it was expected to emerge as the largest group in Italy with around 22-26%.

But it wasn’t a massive endorsement, with provisional data indicating a turnout of just 64.1% versus 74% four years ago – a record low in a country that has historically enjoyed a high level of voter participation.

Although severe storms in the south apparently deterred many from voting there, participation waned across large swathes of northern and central cities, where the weather was calmer.

Italy has a history of political instability, and the next prime minister will lead the country’s 68th government since 1946 and face a host of problems, particularly rising energy costs and growing economic headwinds.

The initial market reaction is likely to be muted given that polls accurately predicted the outcome.

“I do not expect a significant impact although it is not necessarily that Italian assets will perform particularly well tomorrow (Monday) given how the market is starting to deal with Europe, countries with worrying public finances, exposure to the crisis and Ukraine,” said Giuseppe Cercil, fund manager and strategist at Anthilia. in Milan.

Italy’s first autumn national election in more than a century erupted into the infighting between parties that toppled Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s broad national unity government in July.

The new mini-parliament will not meet until October 13, at which point the head of state will summon the party leaders and decide the form of the new government.

Additional reporting by Gavin Jones, Rodolfo Fabri and Giselda Fagnoni in Rome and Danilo Massoni in Milan; Editing by Keith Weir

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