Reporters said that the real estate development group tends to recover. This can be seen from the increased pre-sales numbers in the 2nd quarter of 2024 from the previous quarter. Reference information fromKGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited The total pre-sales of the top 10 real estate development companies was 65 billion baht, up 11% from the previous quarter.
whenReal Estate Information Center (REIC) A report on the price index of new houses currently being sold in Bangkok. And the surrounding area in the second quarter of 2024 had an index value equal to 131.60 points, an increase of 1.50% compared to the same period last year. With an index value of 129.70 points, the new house price index continues to rise mainly due to the increase in house construction costs. As a result, residential developments coming on the market have increased in price due to higher costs.
As for the overall price index of new condominiums currently sold in and around Bangkok in the second quarter of 2024, the index value stands at 156.90 points, an increase of 1.20% compared to the same period last year. It has been increasing continuously for 6 consecutive quarters from 1st quarter of 2023 to 2nd quarter of 2024 and compared to previous quarter. An increase of 1.20% was observed
So KGI Securities (Thailand) The analysis dated (July 11, 2024) stated that the total pre-sales of the top 10 real estate development companies surveyed by the analytics department was 65 billion baht, down 5% from the same period last year, but increasing. 11% from last quarter and 43% of the company's full-year guidance. Divided into pre-sales of horizontal projects, it grew slightly by 7% from the previous quarter. Pre-sales of condominium projects increased by 17% from the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, the total pre-sales of the top 6 real estate developers have recovered from the previous quarter. From opening new projects, organizing more activities and marketing promotions, in addition to selling condominium projects, there is a great deal more to come. AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited Or AP Group pre-sales were 14.4 billion baht, up 49% from last year's 2Q24 to 24 billion baht, up 2% from the same period last year. In the first half of 2024
However, although total pre-sales in the first half of 2024 were down 7% from the same period last year to 123 billion baht, pre-sales AB, CHANCERY PUBLIC COMPANY LTD Or SIRI, Quality House Public Company Limited Or QH And Land and Housing Public Company Limited Or LH In the first half of 2024, demand for housing from mid- to high-end customers is still strong. It may be noted that pre-sales of condominium projects are approximately 40-50% from domestic middle class and foreign buyers. AP And SIRI Being a foreign buyer is contrary to pre-saleLPN DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED Or LPN, Origin Property Public Company Limited Or ORI,
Bruxa Holding Public Company Limited Or PSH AndSUBALAI PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED Or Spally This is due to the fact that middle and lower class customers are still stagnant and have reduced purchasing power and are experiencing high levels of housing debt. There is also a group of high profile buyers like in the case of real estate development companiesSC Asset Corporation Public Company Limited Or Sc And LH As the supply of high-end housing has increased massively, demand is becoming more saturated, weakening it.
The latest real estate industry stimulus program saw home ownership transfer fees cut from 2% to 0.01% and real estate mortgage registration fees from 1% to 0.01% for buyers of homes priced at no more than 7 million baht per unit (about 70-80% of the total market) and still demand. Unable to induce, therefore, the government is trying to increase the quota of foreign ownership to 75% of all condominium units in the scheme. 49%) and extending the long term lease agreement to 99 years from the original 30+30 years.
This issue is very sensitive. and became an issue of public debate. Therefore, the rules and regulations regarding foreign buyers should be studied in more detail before the real estate market is eagerly awaited.Bank of Thailand (BoT) This will lower the policy rate and allow another round of easing of LTV rules.
This is attributed to a pre-sales slowdown in the first half of 2024. Analysts cut profit forecasts. QH, PSH And LH While in the process of reviewing the stock forecast ORI And Spally However, the group's gross profit in 2024 is down approximately 11.5% from the same period last year. Compared to a 14.5% decline in 2023, the research department recommends “buy” shares in the real estate sector it examines. AP It is trading at an attractive valuation with pre-sales pending since the beginning of the year. LH, QH And PSH We only recommend “Hold” as the dividend yield is very high. ORI, LPN And Spally Recommend “Sell” as profit may have additional downside.
pageAsia Plus Securities Company Limited Although noted in the analysis dated (July 12, 2024), the overall picture of the housing development group will still be under pressure from the macroeconomic environment. This puts pressure on purchasing power but operating results for Q2 2024 are still growing adequately. From the previous quarter and generally the performance in the second half of the year is better than the first half of the year. From plans to open new projects and offer new condominiums, there will be more. Looking forward to more real estate promotion measures from the government such as opening up more opportunities for foreign investors to invest in real estate in Thailand.
Also includes the attractiveness of the stock's valuation with a cheap PER to trade. And attractive with an average dividend yield of 6-7% per annum, almost every company pays an interim dividend in the first half of 2024 after announcing the 2Q/2024 budget, with at least an average of 2- earnings expected. 3%
However, it is recommended to invest at market level for this group. And there are various product portfolios to choose from outstanding stocks with low profit volatility. Benefits of real estate incentives and dividends of over 7% per annum, including: SIRI And AP For SIRI, the target price is 2.20 baht, forecasting a normalized profit in the second quarter of 2024, growing from the previous quarter, to maintain a continuous profit of 1.10-1.20 billion baht in the second half of 2024, not exceeding 1 billion baht/quarter, and this year. The normalized profit forecast expects interim dividends to average 4% in the first half of 2024 and nearly 9% for the full year.
area AP Give a target price of 16.00 baht even if there is no interim dividend. (The policy is to pay once a year) But it's even more interesting from the direction of profits that peaked in Q2 2024 and continued through Q3 2024, including dividends of over 8% per year.
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