Stock Dimensions – Opening the Investment Era in 2024. In the Year of the Golden Dragon, we still don't know whether Thai stocks will rise or not.
After the SET index closed the market at the end of 2023 at 1,415.85 points, the worst performance in the region was negative 15.15%, and foreign investors fled with their money from Thai stocks until net sales approached 200 thousand million baht.
But many analysts are still quite confident that in January 67 this should cause the “January effect”
Through statistical data for the past 10 years between 2014-2023, it is found that over 7 years out of 10, the SET index in January will add on average 1.28%.
Is the “January Effect” real or just a scam?
“Corn Hathaisatha” Investment Strategist The Department of Economic and Investment Analysis, Research Division, CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand) confirmed that there is a high chance that the Thai stock market will have a “January effect” because foreign investors sold Thai stocks in the year 66 with a “tax loss carryforward” condition, meaning Selling stocks at a loss to get tax deductions.
Some foreigners are sold at the end of the year. Because I want to start investing in 2024.
Or some funds are preparing to buy for dividends. Thailand's listed companies will hold a dividend festival in March. So, you should start purchasing from January. this
With these many factors this makes it very likely that the “January Effect” will occur.
When you know that foreign companies have to buy Thai stocks, therefore, this year's investment theme is to avoid investing in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. You should invest in large stocks, stocks with a large market capitalization, especially stocks in the SET50, but you should choose well-known and familiar companies. Something to invest in given this situation is CPALL, which has been sold off heavily in the past. But it's because of CPAXT concerns that are dragging it down, even though the fundamentals aren't bad.
As for DELTA, this may not be the right timing. Because it is possible that the Q4/2023 budget will not be good because EV orders may face problems, while the stock price has risen. It can be said that this stock has entered expensive territory. If it drops to the 70 baht area, interest will return.
Delta confirmed that it has lost its fortunes and will continue.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Expressed an opinion on DELTA shares forecast Q4 2023 profit of 4.79 billion baht, down 5.1% QoQ, a normal profit that shows a sign of slowing down. Following the slowdown in electric vehicle sales, the expected dividend for 2023 operating results is 0.46 baht per share based on Raito's 33% payout, representing a yield of about 0.5%.
Although the price was appropriately revised at the end of 2024 to 67 baht, after the profit forecasts for 2023-2024 were revised by 12% and 20% respectively, with the normalized profit forecast in 2023-2024 at 17.7 billion baht, a growth of 22%. And 20 billion baht grew by 14%.
But we still recommend a 'sell' as the stock trades at 56x PER67, compared to 14% growth in the Q4/23 budget, and is starting to show signs of slowing on a quarterly basis.
Follow the Stock Dimension channel to receive capital market news at the link below.
Web: https://www.mitihoon.com/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/mitihoon
Youtube : https://www.youtube.com/@mitihoonofficial7770
Tik Tok: www.tiktok.com/@mitihoon
“Reader. Infuriatingly humble coffee enthusiast. Future teen idol. Tv nerd. Explorer. Organizer. Twitter aficionado. Evil music fanatic.”