Thai stocks today, July 18, 2024, fell sharply with the support of technical stocks, support and resistance 1310-1330 points.

Thai stocks today 18 July 2024 Innovation Exchange Securities Assessment Set up A weaker trend is expected. Pressure factors range from 1) negative sentiment, tech stocks falling sharply, 2) concerns about domestic political factors and 3) negative technical signals. After closing below 1320 points, the next support levels are at 1315 and 1310 points respectively, with the upper frame still lower. Resistance levels are at 1325 and 1330 points.

In the short term, SET is still weak and has limited upside as political factors are still lingering in the country and we still have to wait for clarity on the digital wallet plan. In terms of international factors, US companies' 2Q24 earnings trend, which remains strong, is expected to be supported. Under the Chinese economy it will still be weak and the US economy will be sluggish. Including the ECB's approach, which is expected to keep interest rates on hold. Hence, the investment strategy is recommended.Buy selected“

Investment strategy

Thailand stock market While awaiting clarity on various factors in the country there is still limited intervention, therefore, the investment strategy suggests a “selective buy” across 4 themes as follows.

1. Pick stocks with 2Q24 profits still expected to grow both YoY and QoQ, and MINT BEM OSP TU KCE CPF.

2. Select stocks HANA TOP BEM MINT OSP BBL SCGP AOT which are expected to benefit from cover short and stocks with good fundamentals with ESG rating level A-AAA after starting to apply set uptic level from July 1, 2024.

3. Pick ADVANC CPALL BDMS BBL GULF, a stock expected to benefit from the new parent ESG fund's plan to adjust conditions by expanding the credit limit to 300,000 baht and reducing the holding period to 5 years.

4. Brent crude oil prices are recovering despite widespread unrest in the Middle East. But there have also been attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. Oil infrastructure in Russia has been growing recently. The price range is estimated at 80-90 dollars per barrel. You can still hold oil stocks for hedging, so investors can take more risks. Therefore, we still pick upstream oil stocks like PTTEP.

Today's best picks are stocks

GFPT 2Q67 Normalized profit is expected to be 524 million baht, gross profit margin will grow 57% and profit share will improve from higher gross margin export sales. Animal feed costs increased by 19% QoQ due to seasonal factors. Higher product prices and lower feed costs

BDMS 2Q67 Normalized profit is expected to be 3.4 billion baht, growing 11%YoY from revenue growth and EBITDA margin, but down 17%QoQ due to seasonal factors, while normalized profit is expected to grow 13%YoY to 160 billion baht in 2024. As of 2H24, it is currently trading at 26 times PER 67F, which is -2SD below the historical average.

Today's important things to follow

• The US government is considering tougher enforcement actions against tech companies. It still allows Chinese companies access to American technology. Meanwhile, US presidential candidate Donald Trump said that Taiwan should pay the US to act as a security group to protect Taiwan.
• Federal Reserve Commissioner Christopher Waller has signaled that the central bank is prepared to taper funds soon, as long as there are no big surprises on inflation and employment. As a result, gold prices hit record highs and the US 10-year bond yield fell to a four-month low.
• EIA weekly crude inventories fell 4.9 million barrels, just 30,000 barrels less than market expectations and more than the API's report of a 4.4 million barrel drop in U.S. crude stocks.
• ADB maintains Thailand GDP forecast at 2.6% this year, supported by continued recovery in tourism-consumption. But they worry about declining consumer confidence. Public investment is still lagging, with GDP expected to grow by 3% next year.
• The FTI reported that the industrial confidence index fell for the third consecutive month in June 2024 and to a 24-month low due to a slow economic recovery in Thailand and weak consumer purchasing power. As a result, the overall order volume decreased.
• The House of Representatives voted 297 to 164 to approve a supplementary budget bill with a budget of 122 billion baht to stimulate the economy through a plan to top up 10,000 baht through a digital wallet.
• The BOI is preparing to offer incentives to Chinese entrepreneurs investing in the production of EVs in Thailand to use more components produced in Thailand. This will help the Thai component manufacturers to be strong and have sustainable business.