Thailand’s reformist opposition won the largest number of seats and the largest share of the popular vote in the country’s elections in a stunning rejection of nearly a decade of military and military-backed rule.
The Movement for Progressive Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party were far ahead with 99 percent of the vote counted.
Together, they are expected to win 286 out of 500 seats, but there is still uncertainty about whether they will form the next government because the 250 military-appointed members of the Senate also vote for the prime minister.
This means that the MFP and Pheu Thai will need to negotiate deals with many other parties in order to be able to form the next administration.
With 99 percent of preliminary results published on the Election Commission’s website, the progressive MFP, which was only formed in 2020, had a total of 148 seats – 113 directly elected and 35 from the party list, reflecting its general national support.
Pheu Thai, who is related to the billionaire Shinawatra family, won 138 seats – 111 directly elected and 27 from the party list – with Bhumjaitai in third place on 70 seats.
The United Thai Nation Party of current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 2014 coup as army chief, was fifth with 36 seats.
There is no doubt about the wishes of Thai voters, said Susanna Paton, who heads the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia.
“This is a clear vote for change that cannot be ignored,” she wrote on Twitter. “The lessons of the past 20 years of Thai politics show that if establishment forces attempt to undermine this outcome, it will only lead to greater instability and polarization.”
About 500 seats in the House of Representatives were put up for Sunday’s elections, with 400 directly elected seats and the rest allocated according to the proportional representation system.
‘We can work together’
The MFP has seen a late-stage poll rally and has been counting on young people – including 3.3 million first-time voters – emerging strongly in support of its liberal agenda, including plans to weaken the military’s political role and amend a strict law on the royal family. Insults that critics say are used to stifle dissent.
As the results came in, the mood among party workers and supporters at the MFP campaign headquarters was tense.
“Before the elections, I was hoping we would get about 100 seats,” said pro-Vest Kreroot, a 33-year-old engineer who was among the crowd in Bangkok. “But the real-time updates I’m seeing today really exceed my expectations.”
Party leader Peta Limjaroonrat arrived to cheers and later said the party was planning a march around Bangkok’s historic Democracy Monument. He is expected to address the media at 12 noon (05:00 GMT) on Monday.
“It is now clear that Move Forward has gained tremendous trust from the people and the country,” he wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Monday morning.
Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra congratulated the MFP on her success in the elections, saying that the party that gets the most votes will lead the next government.
“We are ready to talk to ‘move on’, but we are waiting for the official outcome,” she told reporters in Bangkok.
“I am so happy for them,” she added. “We can work together.”
The election is the country’s first since massive youth-led protests in 2020 that broke long-standing taboos by calling for curbs on King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s powers, as well as an end to the military’s involvement in politics. The armed forces have carried out 13 successful coups since 1932, and nine coups failed.
The multinational movement promised sweeping reforms to the monarchy and the military, including an amendment to Thailand’s strict laws of self-monarchy.
The lese majeste laws have been increasingly enforced since the 2014 coup. Vaguely worded Article 112 carries a penalty of 15 years in prison and rights groups say it has been used to punish political activity.
Pheu Thai, allied with Paetongtarn’s father, the self-exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, whose ouster in a 2006 coup sparked political turmoil in Thailand, remains popular among working-class Thais. Despite Thaksin’s downfall, parties associated with the telecom mogul have won every election since, including twice in landslides.
The party refused to commit to amending the lese-majeste laws, saying it would bring them to parliament instead.
Analysts expect weeks of horse trading before coalitions are formed and a prime minister is chosen.
Parties must have at least 25 seats to nominate a candidate who needs 376 votes in both chambers to become prime minister.
The Senate is appointed by the military government and is expected to vote for parties or blocs aligned with the military.
That could turn smaller parties, such as Bhumjaithai, led by current health minister Anutin Charnvirakul, into kingmakers.
In the last election in 2019, Pheu Thai won the most seats, but it was Prayuth who emerged as prime minister as the head of a 19-party coalition. His Palang Pratcharat party, now headed by his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan – also a former general – won the second largest number of seats.
The Election Commission is not expected to officially confirm the final number of seats won by each party in this election for several weeks.
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