The baht hit its weakest level in nearly a month, and the SET index fell after selling pressure from foreign investors and domestic institutions. Amid concerns about debt default issues for listed companies (limited), watch for important factors next week. Signals of foreign capital, effectiveness of BOT policy briefing, and gradual announcement of 4Q23 operating results of listed companies, especially the banking group.
January 13, 2024 Kasikorn Research Center Summary of baht value movement: The baht hit its lowest level in about a month at 35.23 baht to the dollar. During the week, the baht continues to fall in line with most Asian currencies. Baht faced selling pressure at the beginning of the week. Against the dollar, which enjoys some continued support from non-farm employment numbers in the United States, which came out better than expected
However, the baht rebounded briefly while the dollar lost support after US bond yields contracted ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers.
However, the baht weakened again during the rest of the week. This is consistent with net foreign short positions in Thai stocks and bonds. In addition, the market is still waiting to follow signals regarding the direction of interest rates in the country. Meanwhile, pressure on the dollar slowed some after CPI data and the number of weekly unemployment claims in the US. This was better than market expectations, reflecting the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its March meeting. There remains a high degree of uncertainty.
The baht price closed on Friday, January 12, 2024, at 35.06 baht per dollar, compared to 34.72 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (January 5, 2024), for the portfolio situation of foreign investors from January 8 to 12, 2024, foreign investors sold a net worth of Thai stocks worth 4,238 million baht, but the situation was net outflows from the Thai bond market of 4,380 million baht ( Net sales of bonds 3,460 million baht and expired debt instruments 920 million baht)
For next week (January 15-19, 2024), Kasikorn Bank sees baht movement at 34.70-35.40 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center is evaluating important factors to follow, including foreign capital signals and BOT Policy Summary events.
While important US economic figures include manufacturing sector surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Housing Market Index and Consumer Confidence Index (Provisional) January 2024, Retail Sales, Industrial Production Home Start Figures and Used Home Sales December. 2023 and the number of applicants for weekly unemployment benefits
In addition, the market is still waiting to see the December inflation rate. 2023 for the Eurozone and England including Chinese economic data such as GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 and other economic indicators in December 2023 as well.
As for the movement of the Thai stock market, the Thai stock index fell most days of the week. Thai stocks have gradually fallen since the beginning of the week following selling pressure from foreign investors and local institutions. By conveying news about the request to defer payment of corporate bond debts. Some places put pressure on the overall investment climate. As a result, there is strong selling pressure on stocks in many industries.
In addition, news that major investment banks in the United States and Thai bank stocks were downgraded remains a negative factor putting additional pressure on bank stocks, but the Thai stock index partially recovered at the end of the week. There were strong buybacks of bank shares ahead of the announcement of the fourth quarter 2023 budget to support this.
On Friday, January 12, 2024, the SET index closed at 1,413.53 points, down by 1.01% from the level of the end of last week. Meanwhile, the average daily trading value reached 41,215.73 million baht, down 11.99% from the previous week, and the MAI rose 0.26% to close at 420.57 points.
For next week (January 15-19), Kasikorn Securities Limited sees that the Thai stock index has support levels at 1,400 and 1,390 points, while resistance levels are at 1,435 and 1,455 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors, and things to follow include: Direction of foreign capital. And the gradual announcement of the operating results for the fourth quarter of 2023 for Thai companies, especially the banking group.
Important US economic data includes retail sales and industrial production. Home construction starts and used home sales data for December. Including the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, other foreign economic data includes the Consumer Price Index for December. Japan, Eurozone and England including 4Q23 GDP numbers and December economic data. China, such as industrial production, retail sales, and investment in fixed assets.
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