The baht opened this morning at 35.76 baht/dollar – Money & Banking Magazine

The baht opened this morning at 35.76 baht per dollar. Slightly higher from the previous day's close of 35.79 baht per dollar.

Mr. Boon Panishpipun, Money Market Strategist, Krungthai Global Markets Krung Thai Bank revealed that The baud rate opens this morning It appreciated slightly at 35.76 baht per dollar from the previous day's close of 35.79 baht per dollar.

During the previous night the value of the baht has been moving sideways with weak volatility (oscillating in the range of 35.73-35.87 baht per dollar). That comes amid a gradual rise in the dollar and US 10-year bond yields, amid views by market players that the central bank is gradually reducing expectations about the prospect of an interest rate cut soon.

After the latest US economic data report like ISM PMI index, services sector came out better than expected. Lately, market players are not sure whether the central bank will cut interest rates at its May meeting? Since the rebound in gold prices

For trend of baud rate

We estimate that the path faces constant downward pressure. Reports of US economic data also supported the dollar amid a strengthening dollar. The central bank may not rush to cut interest rates, including comments from market players who believe it came out better than expected and may cut interest rates lower than the market had previously estimated.

However, during today's important US economic data report. It will not be the focus of market players. So, you should be careful with the fluctuations in the currency market. During this period the market gradually received economic data reports from the Eurozone. This could cause market players to estimate that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates “faster” than the central bank, as eurozone economic data reflects a worse-than-expected recession. This view could put pressure on the volatile Euro (EUR) to weaken. and support the continued appreciation of the dollar.

Barring economic data from the Eurozone, we think the baht may face additional pressure as the Bank of Thailand (BoT) cuts interest rates faster. From what market players had earlier estimated for the second half of the year. After the latest report on Thailand's CPI inflation, it continued to slow. Especially in terms of core inflation, the core CPI.

In this regard, we assess If the baht fluctuates and weakens through the resistance zone at 35.90 baht per dollar. (We thought it might be a short-term peak on January 26) which would allow the baht to weaken and easily test the important resistance zone at 36.00-36.10 baht per dollar. It will end Pat's streak of consecutive accolades since October last year.

During this period, we still find that the volatility of the baht is higher than the historical average. (Looking at the weekly bot rule) clearly makes us follow the advice that to maximize efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risk, entrepreneurs should use various hedging instruments like options.

And choosing to transact in the local currency apart from using the above instruments is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging schemes before making every decision.

Looking at the baht today, it is expected to be around 35.70-35.90 baht/dollar.

Global Economic Perspective

The players in itUS stock market They are very cautious. Amid concerns that the US economic data report it still came in better than expected. This means the central bank may not be as quick to cut interest rates as the market had previously estimated. While such views put pressure on tech stocks, big US stocks like Tesla -3.7%, Meta -3.3%, but still enough support for a rally in big tech stocks like Nvidia +4.8%, after US stock market Goldman Sachs analysts raised their price targets by nearly +20%. was, causing the overall Nasdaq tech stock index to contract -0.20%, while the S&P500 index closed down. Market -0.32%.

the wayEuropean stock market page The STOXX600 index fell slightly -0.05% amid concerns that central banks (especially the Fed) will cut interest rates slower than market players expected. That boosted bond yields across much of Europe. However, European equities still received support from gains in defensive stocks like healthcare, like Novo Nordisk +3.6%, and gains in European stocks. Semiconductors like ASML +1.1% reacted to news of Nvidia share price target adjustment in the US.

InsideBond market side The US economic data report came in better than expected. Market players are convinced the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates by -125bps this year, causing the US 10-year bond yield to gradually rise to 4.15%, consistent with our earlier estimate that US 10-year bond yields are still in line, and risks to the rebound came better than expected when key US economic data was reported. This has led players to gradually lower their expectations of a rate cut by the central bank.

So we want to emphasize that market players should focus on Buy on Dip strategy to reduce the risk of loss while looking at Total Return or Total Return. If the US 10-year bond yield is as high as 4.20%, it will be higher. Interest in buying gradually

pageCurrency market Overall the dollar strengthened. After the ISM PMI index report, services sector came in better than expected compared to major currencies. This leads market players to see that the central bank will not rush to cut interest rates, and the central bank may cut interest rates lower than the market previously estimated. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) rose to 104.5 points (oscillating between 104.2-104.6 points).

In the sectionGold price A rise in the dollar and US 10-year bond yields has pressured gold prices (the COMEX gold contract for delivery in April) to shrink into an important short-term support zone of $2,030 per ounce. Before gold prices recovered somewhat to the $2,040 per ounce zone. As a result, some market players may reduce their gold holdings. We await further assessment of the gold price situation and direction. This exchange flow also helped to reduce the depreciation of the baht to some extent.

Today, interesting economic data reports will mainly be in Europe. Market players are waiting to assess the economic outlook for the Eurozone. CPI monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB) through the December retail sales report tracks inflation expectations, which could influence the ECB's monetary policy decision.

Additionally, we believe market players will be waiting for Fed officials' statements and the results of the 3-year US government bond auction, which may impact US bond yields during this period.

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