Overall, the US stock market has a more mixed movement. After all the theme stocks are AI/Semiconductor, Nvidia -6.7%, but facing continued profit-making pressure like the US stock market still has some support. Value-style stocks that haven't fared much this year, particularly the energy group, the banking group and the healthcare group, followed gains in other groups of stocks. As a result, the Nasdaq tech stock index fell more than -1.09%, but the S&P500 index closed higher. The market is only -0.31%.
On the European stock market side, the STOXX600 index rose around +0.73% amid a rebound in French stocks such as BNP +3.3%, LVMH +1.3% before entering the first round of French parliamentary elections this weekend Markets also got support from a rally in auto stocks. European stock markets also faced pressure as profit-taking in the group's shares came after European and Chinese authorities prepared to negotiate tariffs on Chinese EV imports. Same as the American side of Semiconductor.
On the bond market side, the US 10-year bond yield fell to 4.24% (from CME FedWatch Tool) after market players gradually increased the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year to around 90%. From the belief that US economic data reports during this period may indicate further economic recession. As for PCE inflation, it is likely to continue to decline, as market players expect the Fed to cut interest rates around 2 times this year, and already better-than-expected US economic data has been reported. However, we maintain our original recommendation that as each 10-year bond yield rises, it will be an interesting opportunity to gradually buy US long-term bonds. That's because the outlook for FED interest rates in the future is “stable” or “low” and most analysts expect US 10-year bond yields to gradually decline to 4% by the end of Q2 2025, according to a recent study by Bloomberg.
On the currency market side, the dollar was broadly range-bound after market players awaited additional fresh factors, including key US economic data reports. And political factors on the European side are the elections in France and England in late June – early July. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) is still oscillating in the zone of 105.5 points (oscillating in the range of 105.3-105.6 points) based on gold prices. A slight decline in the dollar and US 10-year bond yields helped support gold prices (gold contracts for August delivery on the COMEX market) near the $2,340-$2,350 per ounce zone amid market players' views that the central bank has a 90% chance of cutting interest rates twice this year. May come back. This transaction flow helped support some of Pat's valuation before facing selling pressure to take profits.
For today, market players will wait and see. Conference Board (Consumer Confidence) report on US Consumer Confidence Index for June. To follow the statements of the central bank officials and to assess the course of monetary policy of the central bank in the coming period.
We estimate that the trend of the pot's value is that although the pot has turned around and strengthened somewhat, the appreciation of the pot may be lower. This is because the baht has not yet had new supporting factors and the dollar has not yet returned to its persistent depreciation. Because the market believes the central bank can cut interest rates twice this year, but the dollar will still be supported by weakening other major currencies. Political risk factors and monetary policies of the major central banks (ECB, BOE, and BOJ) will begin to face pressure from the exchange flow of baht purchases of dollars and other foreign currencies at the end of the month. From the importer's side we see that the baht may still be stuck in the support zone of 36.50-36.60 baht per dollar.
In this regard, Pat can get some support. If the price of gold is close to the short-term resistance level. As a result, some market players are gradually profiting from selling gold, and foreign investors may be slowing selling Thai assets. Thai stocks in particular started showing signs of a better reversal after the SET index. As a result, the overall financial market environment remains open to risk. Foreign investor financial flows may also begin to return to the Thai capital market.
We maintain the same view that the bot still moves accordingly and is prone to volatility. As a result of changes in factors affecting the direction of the bond, such as market players' views on the Fed interest rate trend, market players must use different strategies to hedge risks. Using instruments such as options or local currency. This will increase efficiency in hedging exchange rate risk.
Looking at the baht today, it is expected to be around 36.50-36.75 baht/dollar.
“Avid gamer. Social media geek. Proud troublemaker. Thinker. Travel fan. Problem solver.”