The baht opened this morning at 35.99 baht per dollar. They fell little to almost unchanged from the previous day's closing level of 35.98 baht per dollar.
Mr. Pun Panichvipon Capital market strategist Krungtai Global Markets Krungtai Bank He revealed that The baht opened this morning at 35.99 baht per dollar. “A little weak” It was almost unchanged from the previous day's closing level of 35.98 baht per dollar.
Since last night the value of the baht has been fluctuating sideways (oscillating in a range of 35.94-36.00 baht per dollar) with the moment of depreciation testing the important resistance area of 36.00 baht per dollar. This is in line with the dollar's rise, which remains supported by a slight increase in the US 10-year bond yield amid market players' concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.
However, the baht's depreciation still failed to break through the resistance zone. This is because market players are waiting to see the results of major central bank meetings starting with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on Tuesday, and in addition, some market players, such as exporters, are still gradually selling the dollar. This has slowed the baht's depreciation somewhat.
to Dimmer value trend We estimate that the dim is at risk of high volatility. Especially during the period when the market is gradually recognizing the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, because if the Bank of Japan signals its willingness to implement a tighter monetary policy or actually implements a tight monetary policy, this may encourage the yen to continuously return to strength from the region. Above 149 yen per dollar, it is not difficult to enter the 148 yen per dollar area. This picture may help slow the depreciation of the baht. This has gradually brought the baht back to some extent.
On the other hand, if the Bank of Japan reiterates its stance that monetary policy will be accommodative before it weakens. So be confident about the direction of inflation will put more pressure on you. The yen fluctuates and weakens. Back above 150 yen to the dollar quickly as well in this case the baht has a chance to fall beyond 36.00 baht per dollar. Go to test the next resistance area at around 36.20 baht per dollar.
In this regard, one should monitor the trend of the flow of funds from foreign investors. Recently, foreign investors have been selling more Thai assets. Especially in the Thai bond section. Both short-term and long-term bonds This is another important factor that pressures the baht's volatility lower.
We would also like to emphasize that during this period, the baht's volatility was higher than the historical average. (Given the weekly dim frame) Clearly, we maintain the advice that entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging instruments, such as options, to increase efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risks.
In addition to using the tools mentioned above, choosing to deal in the local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making any decision.
Looking at the baht today it is expected to be at 35.85-36.15 baht/$.
sideUS stock market Turn around and get into a risky situation. Supported by the rise in shares of major technology companies with AI themes, such as Alphabet, +4.6%, which was supported by news of negotiations with Apple to use “Gemini” artificial intelligence in iPhones.
In general, market players still do not dare to take too much risk. Waiting to see the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, which resulted in the S&P 500 general market closing +0.63%.
shoreEuropean stock market The STOXX600 Index extended its decline, -0.17% following profit taking in telecom stocks that had previously adjusted well. And lucrative share sales in the branded product group after market players remain uncertain about the prospects of China's economic recovery.
However, European stock markets continue to receive support from the rise in AI-related technology stocks as well as the US, led by ASML +1.5%.
At the beachBond market The US 10-year bond yield is still fluctuating near the 4.30% level, with market players waiting for the results of this week's Federal Reserve meeting. To assess the tendency to reduce Fed policy interest rates. If the new interest rate policy expectations do not change (Dot Plot).
The Fed still believes that it will be able to cut interest rates about 3 times this year, and we expect the US 10-year bond yield to start to fluctuate sideways or decline somewhat. In addition, if US economic data is released and after a bank meeting Federal Reserve, results were better than expected. This may encourage the US 10-year bond yield to become more volatile. But we maintain the same view that as bond yields rise there will be an opportunity for investors to buy 10-year US bonds by gradually buying the dip.
sideCurrency market The dollar strengthened slightly. Compared to major currencies there is still support from the perspective of market players who are still concerned about the direction of the Federal Funds rate.
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the Japanese yen, partly due to adjustment of holding positions by market players ahead of the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, also helped support the strength of the dollar.
However, the dollar did not gain much strength. This is because market players are waiting to see the results of major central bank meetings. As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) rose to approach 103.6 points (oscillating in the range of 103.3 – 103.6 points).
In the departmentgold price Concerns over expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed continue to put pressure on the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for April delivery) unable to continue rising. It continues to fluctuate around the $2,160 per ounce support area.
Market participants may wait for the results of major central bank meetings before making clear adjustments to their positions.
The main event today will be the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, as our estimates suggest that the Bank of Japan may keep the interest rate at -0.10% as before, but the Bank of Japan may send a clearer signal about the gradual implementation direction. Monetary policy, such as gradually reducing asset purchases or there may be signs that the Bank of Japan may phase out yield curve control.
If, on the other hand, the Bank of Japan signals its willingness to use tighter monetary policy that may be enough to help slow the depreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, if no signal is sent. In terms of using a more accommodative monetary policy, we expect the yen to have a chance to fluctuate and fall again to test the 150 yen per dollar area without difficulty (which could be an opportunity to wait for an increase in the long yen position).
On the European side market players will wait and see. A report on the German ZEW Economic Seniment to help assess the outlook for the Eurozone economy. This may affect the direction of the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
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