The world is watching the results of tonight's Fed meeting, expecting a dot plot to signal interest rates.

After the Bank of Japan meeting (BOJ) era came to an endInterest rateBy negativeIncrease interest ratesFor the first time in 17 years, investors are turning their attention to the US today. With the Federal Reserve meeting (Fed) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the results of today's meeting. or 1am on March 21, Thai time.

Important Matters for All Parties to Consider: Disclosure Statement”Dot plot“Or 19 central bank representatives' assessment of the policy interest rate, which should be at the end of the year for future interest rates in the longer term. It is prepared and published on a quarterly basis. Or we can call it a signal from the central bank to know what the policy interest rate will be at the end of the year? And how much interest will be paid in the year the central bank goes up/down?

This round of dot plot disclosures is particularly important because this is when the market was already expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in June, but US inflation numbers rose more than expected for 2 months in a row. January-February sent the swaps market to weigh on the Fed cutting interest rates in June, while Goldman Sachs revised down its outlook for June. Reduce interest from 4x to 3x this year.

Since the previous dot plot report in December 2023, the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, four more in 2025, and three more in 2026.

A survey by Bloomberg analysts found that most analysts still believe interest rates will be cut three times this year, as previously forecast. It will begin in June, but 1 in 3 analysts have changed their minds to believe the central bank will cut interest rates less than twice or only once.

“Compared to the previous dot plot, it finds that if the trend to cut interest rates this year is halved, only 2 central bank directors will use votes, so there is still risk of change. But we still believe the central bank is right in the current situation,” Citigroup's economist said. Veronica Clark said.

In addition to the dot plot report, the Fed will also report quarterly updates on the US economic outlook. Investors will keep an eye on the updated numbers.GDP inflation AndunemployedIn the US, it is initially expected that nothing much will change from the report published in December. But analysts are expected to pick up on the central bank's concerns about “inflation” and the impact of inflation on interest rates.

“Even if inflation is higher than expected, but economic activity indicates that the US economy is not yet heating up. So we think that the Fed will maintain the same signal of cutting interest rates three times this year, but that remains to be seen,” Bank of America economist Michael Capen said.