Today, 24 June 2024 The US economy is still doing well after the baht 'weakened'. The dollar is strengthening

Mr. Poon Panichpipun, Money Market Strategist, Krungthai Global Markets, Krung Thai Bank revealed that “Today's Baht Value” The Baht value opened this morning. 36.77 baht per dollar.Depreciation36.65 baht per dollar, the previous weekend's level. Check out the baud rate this week. 36.50-37.00 baht per dollar Today's bot frame It is expected to be in the range of 36.65-36.85 baht per dollar.

Since last Friday PatVolatility weakens (oscillates in the range of 36.62-36.78 baht per dollar) as the dollar gradually continues to strengthen. S&P Global's PMI index for the manufacturing and services sectors came out strong from the report.

At the same time, an increase in bothDollar billAndBond yield 10 years in America This came out better than expected from the US economic data report, putting pressure on gold prices to continue falling. As a result in the short-term support zone, some market players gradually buy gold at lower prices, and such exchange flows weaken the volatility of the baht.

Baht value trend

for Baht value trend We estimate that the rate of depreciation is increasing. Continued appreciation of the dollar puts pressure on the baht to weaken and test the resistance zone at 37 baht per dollar.

You have to keep an eye on the direction.Gold price Gold prices may rise marginally from the support zone. This will help reduce wear and tear on the pot. As for the flow of funds from foreign investors, there may still be some volatility. Until market players allay their concerns about the Thai political situation.

As for the dollar, we see the dollar continue to be supported by the depreciation of major currencies. Especially the Japanese yen (JPY), but the dollar may depreciate somewhat. The US economic data report is leading market players to believe that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year.

We adhere to the advice that market players should use a wide range of exchange rate risk hedging instruments. It was reasonably higher than in the past amid volatility in the baht, including other currencies, and market players may choose to use additional instruments such as options or the local currency, as well as hedge risk through forward contracts.

The dollar was still supported by the report last weekPMI Index The manufacturing and service sectors came in better than expected. and continued depreciation of all major currencies. Japanese Yen (JPY) and British Pound (GBP)

We estimate that this week we should keep an eye on the US PCE inflation report and statements from central bank officials. Prepare to deal with volatility if Japanese authorities intervene in the value of the Japanese yen (JPY).

Global Economic Perspective

▪ US Side – Key Highlights May PCE Inflation Report If PCE inflation rates continue to slow or be slower than expected, this may lead market players to believe the Fed is likely to gradually cut interest rates about 2 times this year, and reports the above information. Players in the market will wait and follow. At the same time, market players are waiting to monitor the reports of central bank officials, the report of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (Consumer Confidence), June and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits (Jobless Claims). Except for the US economic data report, which we estimate, the tone of communications may be more hawkish than last week. Incidentally, although market players have regained confidence that the Federal Bank may cut interest rates 2 times this year, this will reflect a very slow pace in the economic picture and inflation trend (from the CME FedWatch tool, the market gives a chance. 87% ), but the dollar may not decline clearly. This is because the dollar may still be supported by the depreciation of major currencies such as the euro (EUR) which faces risks from French politics. As for the British Pound (GBP), there is scope for some contraction. If market players believe that the Bank of England (BOE) will start cutting interest rates sooner than expected, the Japanese yen (JPY) is still at risk of volatility, depreciation, and a test of the 160-161 yen per dollar zone, unless the Japanese authorities start to intervene in the currency market again. You should first see the yen fluctuate slightly more than we think it is currently.

▪ Europe – Market players will follow the June report of Germany's IFO Business Climate Index. and Eurozone Inflation Expectations (Inflation Expectations), while reports from European Central Bank (ECB) officials assessing the ECB's interest rate outlook, French politics that will continue to affect the European financial market during this period We maintain the same view that the uncertainty of the political situation in France may create volatility in financial markets and Euro (EUR) and European stock markets may be under pressure for weakness/fall in the short term.

▪ Asia – Market players are waiting to gauge the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) outlook for monetary policy with the May Japan retail sales report. And Tokyo's CPI Inflation Rate However, in June, you should be wary of rising volatility. If the Japanese authorities decide to intervene in the value of the Japanese yen (JPY), the yen's volatility falls faster and stronger than expected, and the yen falls to 160-161 yen per dollar. Regarding the results of the central bank meeting in the short term, analysts estimate that inflation trends will gradually return to the target until the Central Bank of the Philippines (PSB) is confident of keeping its policy interest rate at 6.50%. After headline inflation, though within the target range of 2%-4%, since the start of the year it has gradually increased to reach 3.9% in May.

▪ Thailand – Fluctuations in foreign investor fund flows may be a factor that puts pressure on the financial market during this period. We estimate that foreign investors will not rush to buy Thai property just yet. Until the uncertainty of the Thai political situation is resolved.