Ukraine’s dry breakdown, Russian quota and consumer rush have pushed oils, ranging from sunflower seeds to rapeseed, to dazzling prices, in a highly volatile world market where grains are plentiful.
Ukraine, which supplies 50% of world trade in sunflower oil, can no longer export due to the war: ports are banned and, according to kyiv, road and rail allow less than half a million tons of cargo to flow west. , Mainly grains, ten times less than before the collision.
Russia, which exports 28% of the world’s sunflower oil, has introduced a quota for overseas sales of this yellow gold, after raising export tariffs by 20% in early April.
The threat of scarcity and high oil prices has pushed up all oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower, soybean, palm), which are also used as oils, animal feed and agricultural fuels.
Conclusion: Soybean oil rose 16.5% in the US market since early April, with canola (Canadian GMO rapsheet) close to its all-time high on Tuesday and rapeseed up more than 1,000 euros (about 1,030 francs) since Friday. Tons of delivery to the European market in May, record.
On the shelves of supermarkets from Paris to Barcelona, sunflower oil is running out quickly, with consumers rushing for precious bottles whose price is now approaching that of olive oil. Some brands set a quota – five liters per day per customer at Mercadona or Corte Inglés in Madrid.
In March, the FAO index “rose 23.2%” according to the April report of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and food prices driven by vegetable oils reached “record highs”.
Never seen
“Demand is high and the crisis is hard,” commented Damien Vercombray, a broker at Inter-Cortage, who “keeps prices high for a while”.
In particular, after the difficult year 2021, when soybean harvest in South America is expected to be low, the war has already intervened in a very tense environment for oils.
With sunflower sowing starting in Europe, all eyes are now on the next campaign.
In France, the EU’s leading oil seed producer, farmers are preparing to sow more rapeseeds this year: the area will increase by 18.4% to 1.2 million hectares compared to 2021, while soft wheat is expected to fall by 3.9%. Ministry of Agriculture.
In the United States, where sowing begins in May-June, John Sandbacon, executive director of the National Association of Sunflower Growers, is making a number of calls from growers who want to expand their landscape in the United States and Canada.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates a 10% increase in sunflower areas, but is betting on a “20 or 25% increase”: “I’ve been in business for 26 years and I have never seen it.”
“Supply shock”
Major grains, including wheat and maize, also reached their peak in March, with very high market prices.
“For the past two decades, we have become accustomed to timely global distribution,” explains Arlan Suderman, economist at the StoneX site. “Demand is growing faster than supply” and supply was “on time”.
The situation has been exacerbated by the “supply shock” caused by the war in Ukraine, which has added to the drought in Latin America and the American wheat plains: “Together they are making these markets very tense.”
At Euronext, at 12:30 GMT, soft wheat sold for 400 400 a tonne for delivery in May and 33 331 a tonne in June. In May, rapeseed rose to 0 1,040 a tonne.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, shortly before opening, SRW wheat was at $ 11.10 a bushel and corn was at $ 8.01 a bushel in June. Soybeans are listed at $ 16.99.
This article was automatically published. Sources: ats / awp / afp