Understanding West Africa’s Crisis in Five Questions – rts.ch

1. Why was the Nigerian President Mohamed Bazoom overthrown?

Mohamed Bassoum was sworn in as President of Niger on 2 April 2021, democratically elected by more than 55% of his fellow citizens. Known to be close to the West, he agreed to take back hundreds of migrants held in detention centers in Libya and took several measures to curb human trafficking in West Africa.

Hailing from the ultra-minority tribe, Oulad Souleymane – mainly in Libya, Mohamed Bassou won his election by breaking away from a community referendum. However, he did not escape severe identity criticism from the opposition parties.

Nigerian President Mohamed Bassum poses for a photo in Washington on December 13, 2022. [Evelyn Hockstein – reuters]

But according to the rulers, led by General Abdurahamane Diziani, commander of the presidential guard, it was above all the “collapse of the security situation” in the country that would have justified the overthrow of the president. For the rebel general, Mohamed Basu would have stopped the “political speech” that made him believe that “everything is fine” when the harsh reality was “with the dead, the displaced, the share of shame and despair”.

>> Watch the 7:30pm report on the coup in Niger:

Destabilized by the rise of jihadist groups in the Sahel, Niger has indeed faced significant security challenges over the years. However, for Gilles Yapi, a political analyst and founder of the West African think tank Vadi, the problem goes deeper.

He judges that “the lack of credibility of elections, the tools of the judiciary to oust opponents, the extent of corruption and the widening of wealth gaps (…) these are the legitimate criticisms of these administrative deficits. The military seizes power and meets with a certain echo among the population.” Interview for France 24.

2. Did Russia play a role in this regime?

Currently, Russia is not actively participating in this regime, whether through Wagner, a paramilitary group in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali or Sudan. Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian observatory in Moscow, ruled that there was a surprising effect, asked Thursday on the program Tout un monde.

“These events took place during the Russia-Africa Forum in St. Petersburg. It was immediately used to demonstrate a new chapter in the rejection of French and Western influence in Africa from the media and political point of view, but apparently, Russia was not at the origin of the events,” the expert explains.

And to clarify: “I remind you that Russia does not have an embassy in Niger, and Wagner is not there. But it tries to draw chestnuts from the fire, feeding its story”.

>> Listen to Doud en Monde’s report on the situation in Niger:

If Russia is not directly involved in this regime, its anti-Western campaign, especially on social networks, continues on the other side to hit the target and increase the already existing feeling of anger in Niger against the colonial heritage.

A Nigerian protester with a sign in the colors of Russia in the capital Niamey on August 3, 2023. [Sam Mednick – keystone]

3. Is it a failure for French politics?

“The picture is as devastating as it gets used to it. A few hastily packed suitcases, French nationals pile up at the airport. Faced with the risk of a coup in the street and the growing army, Paris has no choice but to evacuate its expatriates. Niger (…) is a prelude to the withdrawal of troops: a defeat for Emmanuel Macron” . These are some words Patrick Saint-Paul, editor-in-chief of Le Figaro’s international department, sums up the situation well.

After the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso and Mali, French soldiers based in Niger could soon be expelled. “This setback is bad news, because President Bassum, who has clearly presented himself as a partner of the West, is precisely what Paris bet to achieve a new model of partnership”, affirms Tut en Monde Mathieu Troin, guest analyst at the Strategic Center. and International Studies in Washington.

Last February, Emmanuel Macron said he wanted to bet on a more equal, transparent and inclusive partnership with Niamey. “The French troops fighting the Nigerians were for example under Nigerian command, which was a significant change”, recalls Mathieu Troin.

So France’s loss of influence is undeniable. The US, which does not have the same colonial history in the region, should not come out of it any better because it is considered to be from the same Western camp, experts judge. The future of Washington’s two military bases in the country is uncertain.

4. What is the role of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)?

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is an intergovernmental organization created in 1975 to promote cooperation and economic integration among the countries of the region.

Consisting of 15 member states, it aims to foster growth, political stability and regional prosperity by promoting the free movement of goods, people and capital. It intervenes in various fields such as harmonization of economic policies, security, crisis management and democracy promotion.

In less than two years, the organization has suspended three of its members (Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso) after coups. In this new regime in Niger, it plays on its credibility. That is why it considered military intervention and initially issued a militant ultimatum to the rulers.

>> At 7:30 p.m., on ECOWAS’ ultimatum, analysis by independent journalist Amuri Houchard:

While these four countries account for only 10% of the economic community’s total GDP, they account for nearly 60% of its area. A fact that raises concerns and questions of security, especially in the region of three borders (Burkina Faso, Mali and the Niger border region) which accumulates threats: criminal activities, robbery, social conflicts and above all, group activities jihadists.

Jihadi groups such as Boko Haram also exist in southeastern Niger, in the Tifa region, bordering Nigeria. In total, Abuja shares 1,500 kilometers of border with Niger. The ongoing destabilization in Niamey is viewed with a more dim view.

5. What are the forces involved?

If the ECOWAS ultimatum is not followed early on, the potential for military conflict is real. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who holds the rotating presidency of ECOWAS, insisted he hoped to “reach a peaceful solution”, although the use of force “as a last resort” was not ruled out.

>> Read about it: ECOWAS is ready to use its force to restore constitutional order in Niger

On Monday, Mali and Burkina Faso for their part announced they would send a delegation to support the Nigerian Bushkids who came to power. Niger’s new rulers could theoretically align themselves with Mali and Burkinabe forces.

But for journalist Wasim Nasr, an expert on jihadist movements, we see above all a “contact” exercise, because “each of these regimes controls only 50% of their territory”, He explains on the Francinbo site. The fight against non-state armed groups, terrorists and jihadists has already partially occupied their armed forces. On paper, Niger has an army of 30,000 to 40,000 men, but its army’s capabilities are difficult to assess.

For its part, ECOWAS has a relatively weak intervention force, with a “standby force” (FAC) of just 1,500 men. But if member states such as Nigeria, Senegal or Ivory Coast send their own soldiers, they can muster 50,000 soldiers. According to a military source who confided in the daily Le Monde. A number of players who could step up significantly if Nigeria decides. According to figures released by the Ministry of Defense in 2015, the armed forces of Africa’s most populous country are 150,000 strong.

But the outbreak of a new war in the Sahel would above all benefit jihadist movements, which benefit from the bankruptcy of states to proliferate. In any case, this is the fear of many experts and specialists, some of whom published on August 5 A tribune A call to “prevent this catastrophic situation”.

Tristan Herdick