Where will the price of gold stop? Thai gold and global gold rose to all-time highs, the highest level in history.

Since the beginning of the Year of the Golden Dragon 2024, the price of gold has increased in both the global market and the price of gold in the country. It has been continuously adjusted to the upside by creating a myth that it achieved the all-time high (highest price ever) since there has been a gold trading market in the world. More importantly, going into this year just over two months later, the global gold market price and the domestic gold price have reached all-time highs continuously 9 times, most recently on the night of March 8, 2024, as the global gold price rose. reaching US$2,185 per ounce. Meanwhile, the price of gold bullion in the country is sold at 36,350 baht per 1 baht of gold weight.

However, if you focus on it, you will see that the local gold price timeline has indicated an upward movement since February 9, 2024, when the local gold bullion price reached 34,550 baht, after which it continued to increase almost every business day. It rose so strongly that it created chaos in the market on Saturday, March 2, when the chart reared its head. It pushed the price of gold in the country to rise. It rose between 35,000 and 35,200 baht and continued to increase strongly in the past week. It rose to a maximum of 36,350 baht, the same trend as the price of gold in the global market, which reached an all-time high of 2,185 US dollars.

When looking at the factors that drive the global gold price it's pretty hot like this.

The fundamental factors, of course, come from US economic data. Both the production and services sectors and US consumer confidence came in weak and below market expectations, and this gives the market hope that the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) may need to lower interest rates sooner than expected. Among these is the semi-annual statement that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, delivered to the Senate (Senate), as he reiterated the reduction of interest rates as before while the US public debt was and remains very high, causing the need To lower interest rates further in order to prevent the government from being depleted further. Recently, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 4 times this year.

In addition, gold prices also support the continued purchasing power of central banks around the world. During the past two years (2022-2023), central banks around the world have purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold annually.

One of the important factors affecting the volatility and heat of global gold prices this time is the conflict in the Middle East. The war between Israel and Hamas and the Red Sea crisis, not to mention the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is entering its third year, have led to this trend. “De-dollarization” increases demand for gold as a safe haven asset.

Especially the issue of the war between Israel and Hamas. This increases tension and a member of the Israeli war council warned Hamas that if all hostages in Gaza are not released by March 10, 2024, Israeli forces will immediately attack the land city of Rafah, on March 10, which falls on the Ramadan holiday. If this really happens, it is likely to create discontent among Arab countries. This will lead to an escalation of the war and a greater spread of violence. It will put more pressure on gold prices to rise further. Despite efforts to negotiate an end to the war, Israel recently gave Hamas a deadline. Name the hostage who was previously alive. So you will enter the negotiation zone. If Hamas is stubborn, it is ready to attack with a large wave!!

Amidst uncertainty about the situation, the price of gold will go all the way and where will it stop, Jiti Tangsitpakdi, head of the Gold Merchants Association, said that during this period the price of gold in the country was increasing without stopping. It is in the same direction as the global gold price, but the baht is getting stronger. This helped push the price of gold in the country to a limited extent. Considering the short-term gold price resistance at 38,000 baht per baht, we recommend speculating on the upside.

Corresponds to “Dr. Kristharath Hiranyasiri”, Chairman of the Executive Committee. A group of companies in the MTS Gold Mae Thong Suk (MTS) group that sees gold price resistance at 38,000 baht suggests buying when the gold price weakens.

Thanarat Pasawong, CEO of Hwa Seng Heng Group, noted that the baht also has a significant impact on the price of gold in the country this year. The value of the baht decreased this year by 1.20 baht, which had a positive impact on the price of gold in the country by about 1,100 baht, but now the baht has stabilized and strengthened, which helped the price of gold rise in a limited way.

If a violent Israeli attack occurs on March 10, there is certainly a chance that gold prices will rebound further. But it will be an opportunity to have a sales force to make a profit. This may cause the price of gold to weaken somewhat. In the short term, the target for global gold prices is between $2,000 and $2,250, while the price of local gold bullion is between $2,000 and $2,250. 37,000-37,500 baht, and we advise people who already have gold to keep it, but there is no need to rush to sell it. Because looking at the short and long term, gold can still move higher. But in the short term, we still need to closely monitor the war situation in the Middle East.

“During the period when the price of gold continued to move and rise, it was found that more investors came to buy than to sell. Because most of them still believed that the price of gold had a chance to rise further. Therefore, they came to buy more than they could sell to make a profit. For those who own gold, I recommend continuing to hold (Let Profit Run), and there is no need to rush to sell yet.”

While the opinions of foreign teachers were previously at the beginning of last February, Citibank analyst Akash Doshi, head of commodities research at Citibank, had previously expected gold prices to reach $3,000 per ounce due to three main factors, including reducing dependence on the US dollar. (De-dollarization) and economic slowdown, and the global economy entered a severe recession, with the price of gold at the time reaching $2,016 per ounce. It is expected to rise by another 50% if central banks in various countries increase the amount of gold purchased into the reserve treasury. Including an economic slowdown. and severe global economic recession.

The analyst team at Citibank also believes that “the factor that will most likely cause the price of gold to reach $3,000 per ounce is the acceleration of the process of reducing dependence on the dollar.” (De-dollarization) faster among central banks in emerging market countries. This will lead to a crisis of confidence in the US dollar. The volume of the central bank’s purchases of gold may double.”

There is another factor that would support the price of gold to reach $3,000 per ounce. It is the global economy that has entered a severe recession. Which may support the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates quickly

JP Morgan issued an analysis in January 2024 predicting that the price of gold will reach $2,175 in the fourth quarter of this year and will reach an all-time high of $2,300 in the third quarter of next year!!

The author of “Tua Jed Sanam Khao” sees the global price of gold. Citibank said it would hit Mars at $3,000 an ounce in 2025, so I went to ask them what they thought. Many gold experts know that an evaluation of the price of gold has been made. But the technical evaluation was the same price as well.

The technical chart will be like the shape of a coffee cup. He explained that before the price rises to Mars to reach $3,000, it may take many years. Because it must fall hard and remain stationary for several waves before it can rise. But at Citibank, the reasons that drive the price are all purely fundamental factors, if there are 3 main factors which tend towards the possible and the impossible!!

By the way, if the global gold price rises to $3,000, where will the gold price in Siam rise? So I asked my teacher to help me with arithmetic and playing the abacus. I knocked on the calculator and got the result: If the value of the baht remains at the current level of 35.40 baht per US dollar. The price of Thai gold bullion on the tip of Halley's Comet will be at 44,500 baht per baht!!!! Oh noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

For gold investors and those interested, you can follow the latest gold price updates. Trend Analysis Historical Gold Price Statistics, Gold Price Charts at https://www.thairath.co.th/money/investment/gold