Yevgeny Prigozhin: Where in the world is Wagner’s warlord?

CNN
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Late last week, jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny received a harsh sentence: after a court struck him with a new ruling. 19 years In a penal colony, he was immediately sent to a punishment cell.

That was a stark contrast to the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Back in June, Prigozhin led the failed insurrection that posed the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in more than two decades of rule. While Prigozhin’s forces did not get as far as Moscow, an enraged Putin said in a televised address that those who take the “path of treason” will He faces punishment. Almost two months later, in the case of Wagner’s chief, this simply did not happen.

Obviously, the price of confronting Putin is not fixed. Perhaps even more surprising is that Prigozhin has not kept a low profile since the June uprising.

A few weeks after the mutiny, Prigozhin popped up on the sidelines Petersburg, shaking hands with a dignitary from the Central African Republic (CAR).

The mercenary chief certainly wasn’t sporting a military pose: while subscribers to his Telegram channel used to see him in camouflage and tactical gear, Prigozhin was seen in a polo shirt and mom jeans, apparently cutting a more casual look. number in the past months.

But it is a pity for the poor Russian diplomat who has to explain why Prigozhin – whose forces shot down Russian military planes and killed Russian military personnel on their march to the capital – is still at large.

That’s exactly what happened when CNN’s Christiane Amanpour confronted Andrei Kelin, the Russian ambassador to the UK, about the bizarre sight of Prigozhin’s post-rebellion appearance.

Kellin admitted that Wagner’s rebellion would constitute a form of “high treason”. But the ambassador went on to explain that Putin had decided to leave things out of date.

“The chief rehabilitated it when it started, and then it was all over,” Killeen said. “He’s now traveling somewhere, so we’re learning about some heroic deeds by Wagner groups,” referring to Wagner’s apparent battlefield successes around the eastern Ukrainian city. Bakhmut.

However, Amanpour pressed Keelin even more.

“What I would like to understand is why there are people like (imprisoned dissident Vladimir) Kara-Murza, the intellectual, others, Navalny in prison for their verbal protest and disagreement with the Russian government, but… Prigozhin, who tried to commit a coup against the Kremlin, maybe even against the president.” Himself – an armed coup – still roaming freely in Russia? He was filmed meeting African leaders during this week’s summit in St. Petersburg, so why isn’t he in jail for treason?”

Kellin evades at first, saying he does not remember the Russian soldiers killed during the Wagner Rebellion. Pressed by Amanpour, Kelin admitted he had no explanation. Old-timers are also looking for explanations about Prigozhin’s future.

Experts believe the Wagner boss still has value to Putin, though the two men’s diminished stature.

“Prigozhin’s stock in the Kremlin has clearly taken a hit,” said Candice Rondeau, director of Future Frontlines, an open-source intelligence service at the New America think tank. “But since Putin lost more shares after the rebellion, he seems to think there is still some benefit in keeping Prigozhin around.”

Rondo said Prigozhin’s business acumen — and his skill at disguising business gains through an opaque network of front companies and offshore operations — is an asset to Putin’s Russia, which has been battered by sweeping Western economic sanctions.

“At this point, Prigozhin’s networks of shell companies are Putin’s best insurance for preserving Russia’s war economy,” she said. “But it’s not likely to stay that way forever — eventually something has to concede. And there’s a good chance once that happens we’ll see even more exciting events near the border between Poland and Belarus.”

Rondo was referring to the recent transfer of some Wagner fighters to Belarus. The move – which appears to be part of a deal brokered to end the June insurrection – has already raised alarms in Poland, a NATO member bordering Belarus.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recently said that 100 Wagner soldiers are heading towards a A thin strip of land between Poland and Lithuania, with the possibility of impersonating migrants to cross the border.

It is unclear exactly how many Wagner forces are in Belarus, and whether or not they have access to heavy weaponry. But Moravecki seems to point to one possible scenario for Wagner’s mischief: promoting some kind of destabilization along NATO’s eastern border.

Then there are Prigozhin’s plans for another area: the weak and unstable states of Africa, where Wagner has already conducted a series of operations.

Speaking after Wagner fighters moved to Belarus, Prigozhin suggested he remained focused on this core African market.

“To ensure that there are no secrets and behind-the-scenes conversations, I inform you that the Wagner Group continues its activities in Africa, as well as in training centers in Belarus,” Prigozhin said in an audio message shared on Telegram. Accounts associated with the Wagner Group.

And Prigozhin’s forces are already involved in activities in Sudan – where Wagner supplied the militia Sudanese army fighting He has worked extensively in the Central African Republic and in Libya.

He may also feel opportunities in NigerAfter the recent military coup threatened to ignite a major regional crisis. In a recent Telegram message, Prigozhin hinted that Wagner might be willing to offer her services there.

“What happened in Niger has been brewing for years,” Prigozhin said. The former colonialists are trying to keep the people of African countries under control. In order to restrain them, the former colonialists populate these countries with terrorists and various bandit formations. Thus creating a massive security crisis.”

Then followed by a hard sell. “The population is suffering,” he said. “And this (the reason for) the love of PMC Wagner, this is the high efficiency of PMC Wagner. Because a thousand soldiers of PMC Wagner are able to establish order and destroy terrorists, and prevent them from harming the peaceful population of states.”

That might be dismissed as mere bluster and salesmanship. But it is worth noting that the offer to sell Prigozhin was contrary to the view of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which called for the “immediate release” of Nigerian President Muhammad Bazoum by the military.

And this is where things are still interesting in Russia. By defying Putin and evading punishment, Prigozhin appears to have built and maintained a rival center of gravity for the Kremlin.

in final analysisPrigozhin has effectively done away with “two pillars of power” – Putin’s longstanding system of top-down rule, said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“The ‘power vertical’ that Putin has always promoted is gone,” she wrote. “Instead of a strong hand, there are dozens of miniature Prigozhins, and though they may be more predictable than the Wagner leader, they are no less dangerous. They all know full well that a post-Putin Russia is already here — even with Putin still in power — and that it is time to take up arms and prepare for a battle for power.”